Headlines
It was a predominantly bullish week for most gas and power contracts last week, with only day-ahead power opposing this bullish trend. Day-ahead gas rose 10.8% to 83.35p/th, following high cooling demand amid rising temperatures, coupled with low wind outturn during the week. Day-ahead power fell 21.7% to £57.90/MWh, with easing demand and strong wind outturn forecasted for Monday, placing strong bearish pressure on day-ahead prices. September 24 gas was up 13.4% at 90.70p/th, and October 24 gas increased 11.6% to 93.70p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 5.4% on average, with winter 24 and summer 25 gas increasing 9.4% and 8.3% respectively, lifting to 104.60p/th and 98.00p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 4.8%, as winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 5.6% and 6.1% respectively, rising to £89.25/MWh and £78.55/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 21.7% to £57.9/MWh, following easing demand and rising wind outturn forecasts.
- September 24 power climbed 7.1% to £77.00/MWh and October 24 power increased 6.7% to £76.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q424 power moved 5.7% higher to £86.45/MWh.
- The annual October 24 contract rose 5.9% to £83.90/MWh, 23.6% lower than the same time last year (£109.75/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 5.6% to £71.50/MWh, following the movement seen across its baseload counterpart.
- September 24 peak power gained 8.1% to £83.10/MWh, and October 24 peak power increased 2.6% to £83.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 24 peak power rose 4.8% to £96.97/MWh
- This is 35.4% lower than the same time last year (£150.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 4.8%.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 5.6% and 6.1% respectively, rising to £89.25/MWh and £78.55/MWh
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 4.8% on average.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 peak power increased 4.6% and 5.7% respectively, climbing to £103.70/MWh and £84.45/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw a continued decrease across the reporting period down 2.7% to average $79.14/bl, finding influence from sustained reduced demand across China
- Weak demand, particularly from China, remained a key bearish market fundamental throughout the week
- Recent developments and the heightened risk of an escalation within the on-going conflict in the Middle East was also a key market consideration last week
- These two competing fundamentals resulted in mixed price movements throughout the week
- As with LNG, the oil market will be influenced by developments within the Middle-Eastern conflict and its potential to impact supply and key shipping routes, creating volatility in market
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Opposing movements were registered across the carbon markets throughout the reporting period, with UK ETS carbon experiencing losses, down 2.2% to average £39.00/t, and the EU ETS experiencing gains, up 3.8% to €69.36/t.
- Compared to the prior week, running hours of the Ratcliffe coal station were down last week which will provide some level of relief to UKA prices
- Large forecasted increases in GB wind generation for the coming week will provide a level of bearish support for UKAs over the coming week
- Rising gas prices across Europe, amid a tight and uncertain LNG market will see the chance for higher priced EUAs over the near-term, if coal generation economics become more favourable than gas
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
