Headlines
Both power and gas contracts registered gains last week, contrasting against the previous week’s bearish fundamentals. Day-ahead gas rose 8.4% to 94.05p/th, finding support from a period of notable maintenance across the Norwegian Continental Shelf that saw reduced total gas flows into GB. Day-ahead power rose 55.0% to £89.00/MWh, following a drop in wind output that resulted in a day-ahead price high of £89.00/MWh, the highest level seen since January 2024. September 24 gas was up 7.5% at 95.00p/th, and October 24 gas increased 5.6% to 95.75p/th. All seasonal gas contracts saw gains last week, up by 1.7% on average, while both winter 24 and summer 25 gas increased 2.3% and 1.4% respectively, lifting to 105.90p/th and 99.15p/th. Following gas, all seasonal power contracts grew this week by 2.7% on average, with winter 24 and summer 25 rising 3.6% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £92.95/MWh and £81.50/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 55.0% to £89.00/MWh amid reduced wind output, increasing reliance on more expensive fuelled generation.
- September 24 power climbed 6.4% to £81.15/MWh and October 24 power increased 5.5% to £81.68/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q424 power moved 3.8% higher to £89.50/MWh.
- The annual October 24 contract rose 3.3% to £87.23/MWh, 24.1% lower than the same time last year (£115/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 9.4% to £90.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- September 24 peak power gained 5.9% to £87.65/MWh, and October 24 peak power increased 5.6% to £89.68/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 24 peak power rose 2.8% to £100.40/MWh
- This is 36.2% lower than the same time last year (157.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.7%.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 expanded 3.6% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £92.95/MWh and £81.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 2.8% on average.
- Winter 24 and summer 25 peak power increased 3.1% and 2.8% respectively, falling to £107.35/MWh and £87.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil saw bullish movements across the week, as Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced on 29 August that more than half of the country’s oil production was offline and exports at several ports had ceased, with total production losses in Libya reaching approximately one million barrels per day
- However, price gains were limited by persisting concerns about reduced demand in China, in tandem with a recent announcement that Chinese manufacturing activity fell to a six-month low
- It is anticipated that Saudi Arabia may extend current supply cuts into October after the weakness experienced across the oil market. This could act to further tighten global supply
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Opposing movements were registered across the carbon markets, with the UK ETS experiencing gains, and the EU ETS dropping week-on-week
- The gain in UK ETS carbon prices was the result of reduced wind generation on the system acting to increase the reliance on more expensive forms of power generation, in turn bolstering demand for carbon allowances across GB
- European carbon prices registered losses, following lower traded volumes on 26 August due to the UK Bank Holiday
- Looking ahead, price gains may be experienced if gas supply security drops, and more expensive forms of power generation are required. This may occur if the winter period is colder than anticipated, and EU gas storage stocks are rapidly diminished, or in more recent timeframes if unplanned outages impact the Norwegian Continental Shelf during the current period of notable outages
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
