Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas Prices and Wholesale Electricity Prices
Both gas and power markets saw bullish movements last week, motivated by low temperatures and tight system margins. Day-ahead gas rose 8.0% to 124.23p/th, following sustained below-average temperatures acting to boost domestic gas-for-heating demand, paired with periods of lower wind generation, which served to tighten system margins. Likewise, day-ahead power rose 27.2% to £108.03/MWh, also due to the extended period of lower temperatures following an Arctic blast later in the week. Additionally, further gains were supported by the aforementioned period of reduced wind generation, most acutely on 4 January, acting to tighten system margins and weigh bullishly on short-term contracts. February 25 gas was up 3.7% at 123.88p/th, and March 25 gas increased 3.7% to 122.08p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 3.7% on average, while both summer 25 and winter 25 gas increased 3.8% and 4.6% respectively, lifting to 118.70p/th and 116.20p/th. All seasonal power contracts registered gains last week, up on average by 4.3%, as summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 4.5% and 4.5% respectively, rising to £90.93/MWh and £93.80/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 27.2% to £108.03/MWh, following low wind generation and notably below average temperatures.
- February 25 power climbed 0.2% at £103.75/MWh and March 25 power increased 5.3% to £98.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power traded at £91.65/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract rose 4.5% to £92.37/MWh, 9.0% higher than the same time last year (£84.75/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 13.6% to £115.30/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- February 25 peak power gained 1.7% at £121/MWh, and March 25 peak power increased 6.0% to £107.5/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power rose 4.1% to £94.43/MWh
- This is 15.5% higher than the same time last year (81.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 4.3%.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 expanded 4.5% and 4.5% respectively, rising to £90.93/MWh and £93.80/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 4.0% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power increased 4.7% and 3.8% respectively, falling to £97.40/MWh and £106.90/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Last week Brent crude oil observed bullish movements in price, averaging 2.4% higher at $76.38/bl.
- Across the week, Brent crude saw upwards price influence, largely stemming from cold weather across the United States acting to increase domestic demand levels, combined with announcement from the Chinese Government surrounding the latest round of stimulus measures
- The Chinese government stated that it would boost the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds, designed to stimulate consumer spending and fund large-scale equipment upgrades
- It is anticipated that rising production from non-OPEC countries and an uptake in electric vehicles in China will lead to lower Brent crude prices across 2025, despite continued production cuts from OPEC.
- Moreover, JPMorgan projects that supply will outpace demand by 1.2 million barrels per day, further supporting the downwards movement
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU ETS carbon prices saw gains last week. EU ETS carbon prices rose 6.2% to average €76.14/t, and the UK ETS carbon increased 4.8% to average £36.66/t.
- Price increases were registered across both ETS markets following increased selling activity from traders as the holiday period ends and the 2025 trading year begins
- As a result, EU ETS carbon prices reached the highest level seen since May 2025 at €76.14/t on 3 January, finding support from a higher proportion of coal-fired generation across the continent
- The beginning of a new trading year will continue to buoy prices across the short-term, increased further by projections of below-average temperatures in the week ahead acting to bolster both domestic demand and demand across the continent
- Over the coming weeks, carbon prices across both schemes will continue to be heavily related to the amount of wind generation on their respective grid – especially in GB where wind accounts for a higher proportion of the generation mix
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
