Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts registered losses last week, amid strong gains in wind generation following the arrival of Storm Amy coupled with the return of Hartlepool 1. Moreover, power contracts decreased as Norwegian gas flows through the Langeled pipeline improved week-on-week resulting in a bearish trend. Day-ahead gas fell 12.7% to 70.50p/th, following warmer temperatures, and increased wind outputs, with day-ahead power also falling 33.4% to £65.45/MWh. November 25 gas was down 5.1% at 80.75p/th, and December 25 gas decreased 5.3% to 83.40p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 2.7% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas dropped 4.0% and 3.4% respectively, falling to 86.38p/th and 79.65p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.6%, as summer 26 power decreased 2.3% to £72.30/MWh, while winter 26 fell 1.2% to £81.48/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 33.40% to £65.45/MWh, following strong wind outputs and the return of Hartlepool1.
- November 25 power slipped 2.4% at £81.75/MWh and December 25 power decreased 3.7% to £80.55/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 3.5% higher to £83.30/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 1.7% to £76.89/MWh, 6.7% higher than the same time last year (£72.08/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 3.3% to £95.00/MWh, following the trends seen across its baseload counterpart.
- November 25 peak power declined 1.8% to £100.70/MWh, and December 25 peak power decreased 1.7% to £99.20/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 0.1% to £81.33/MWh.
- This is 11.49% higher than the same time last year (72.95/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.6%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 2.3% to £72.30/MWh, while Winter 26 fell 1.2% to £81.48/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 0.1% on average.
- Summer 26 peak power dropped 2.5% and Winter 26 power increased 0.1%, falling to £74.60/MWh and £97.88/MWh, respectively.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent Crude decreased week-on-week, down 3.6% to average $66.03/bl, reaching a peak of $68.30/bl on Monday.
- Brent Crude was trading bearish towards the latter end of the reporting period, as expectations of increased OPEC+ supply in November weighed on prices.
- However, it was reported that limited spare capacity and continued geopolitical uncertainty resulted in prices remaining relatively stable.
- BP announced delays to the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030 due to slower than expected efficiency gains, this announcement supported bullish trends in Brent Crude oil prices earlier in the week.
- OPEC+ announced that oil output will rise by 137,000 barrels per day following a meeting on 5 October. While this was lower than expected, Brent Crude could begin to register a loss as production increases.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS prices increased 1.4% week-on-week, due to mild temperatures and high wind output, reducing demand for gas-fired generation. The EU ETS peak occurred on 3 October at €79.42/t and hit a low of €75.77/t on 30 September.
- Despite the correlation between gas and EU ETS prices weakening amid falling gas prices, reduced auctions due to Germany’s public holiday resulted in limited supply, supporting higher EU ETS prices.
- 30 September marked the first EUA surrender deadline in which the shipping industry was under the ETS compliance regime. This development saw demand for EUAs increasing, supporting higher prices.
- The Carbon Forward 2025 conference next week is anticipated to cover developments in compliance and voluntary carbon markets, including the future of the UK and EU ETS.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight