Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All tracked power and gas contracts registered bearish movements last week, with the exception of peak and baseload day ahead power which registered gains. Day-ahead gas fell 3.6% to 77.40p/th due to geopolitical uncertainty in the market leaving traders cautious; prices found influence from the announcement that the US would impose an additional 25% tariff on India and news that Moldova has officially ended its gas supply agreement with Russia providing positive signals to the market. Day ahead power prices started the week very low at £22.75/MWh (the lowest power price since August 2024) finding support from high wind generation due to Storm Floris – contributing to 56.5% of the generation mix on 5 August. Power prices fluctuated during the week, and by the end of the week prices rose to £79.25/MWh due to forecasts of lower wind generation and higher temperatures into the following week, increasing the demand for gas-for-power and carbon intensive cooling appliances. September 25 gas was down 5.3% at 79.03p/th, and October 25 gas decreased 5.5% to 79.95p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contracts registered losses last week, down by 3.8% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropping 4.7% and 4.8% respectively, subsiding to 87.75p/th and 79.58p/th. All seasonal baseload power contracts also declined last week, down by 1.5% on average, as winter 25 power fell 2.0% to £83.25/MWh, while summer 26 dropped 1.7% to £72.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 5.0% to £79.25/MWh, following forecast low wind output and higher temperatures into the following week.
- In addition, September 25 power slipped 2.5% to £77.25/MWh and October 25 power decreased 2.0% to £74.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power averaged £81.50/MWh across the week, down 2.3% on the previous week.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 1.9% to £77.63/MWh, 4.5% higher than the same time last year (£81.25/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 4.4% to £89.75/MWh, following its baseload counterpart increase.
- September 25 peak power declined 2.6% at £82.25/MWh, and October peak power decreased 0.6% to £87.75/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 1.6% to £89.83/MWh.
- This is 2.4% lower than the same time last year (£92.00/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts fell last week, down on average by 1.5%.
- Winter 25 power decreased 2.0% to £83.25/MWh, while summer 26 fell 1.7% to £72.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 1.6% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power dropped 1.6% and 2.0% respectively, down to £99.00/MWh and £74.00/MWh
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude oil stood at $67.49/bl last week – a fall of 5.4% week-on-week.
- As seen over previous weeks, prices continue to be driven down by bearish movements on the supply side, with the OPEC+ alliance announcing an increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September.
- In addition, Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with US energy company ExxonMobil. The MoU will see the company explore four offshore blocks off Libya’s northwest coast. This provided bearish market signals and suggests investment sentiments are positive.
- Furthermore, expectations of a US Federal Reserve cut in September could weaken the US dollar, making oil cheaper for holders of other currencies.
- However, oil prices rose slightly midweek, amid supply concerns following threats that President Trump would impose tariffs on India for buying Russian oil; this coincided with data published which found that US crude oil inventories dropped by 4.2mn barrels the week previous – exacerbating supply concerns.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU carbon prices fell week-on-week, averaging £51.14/t (down 0.1%) and €71.71 (down 0.6%).
- At the beginning of the week, wind generation was relatively strong across the continent, driving down the demand for fossil fuel power and therefore providing bearish signals to carbon prices; however, this was coupled with forecasts of increasing temperatures which boosted demand for carbon-intensive cooling appliances – resulting in a sideways market outlook.
- By midweek, EU ETS prices rose slightly – opposing UK ETS movements – as a result of increasing residual load in Germany, Austria, France and the Netherlands.
- However, by the end of the week EU and UK ETS prices rose to €73.17/t and £52.15/t on 8 August due to geopolitical uncertainty in the market –driven by movements from President Trump – coupled with heatwave conditions increasing demand for cooling appliances.
- Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty is expected to continue to drive fundamentals in the market; particularly ahead of talks between President Trump and President Putin over a peace deal in Ukraine on 15 August.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight