Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most tracked gas and power contracts saw moderate gains last week, with day-ahead power acting as the exception amid strong wind outturn at the weeks end, registering a strong bearish movement. Day-ahead gas rose 2.9% to 79.55p/th, registering moderate gains, primarily related to geopolitical developments relating to Russian invasions of Polish airspace and the reported strike on Hamas in Qatar by Israeli soldiers. Day-ahead power fell 76.9% to £18.03/MWh, a yearly-low, on 12 September due to very strong wind outturn and subsequent oversupply with wind representing 61% of the generation mix on the day, placing strong bearish pressure on day-ahead prices. October 25 gas was up 2.4% at 80.20p/th, and November 25 gas increased 1.1% to 84.83p/th. All seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 1.1% on average. Both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increased 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, lifting to 86.60p/th and 79.10p/th. All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 0.7%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, rising to £83.10/MWh and £73.83/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 76.9% to £18.03/MWh, following strong wind outturn in the week’s latter half.
- October 25 power slipped 0.2% to £74.25/MWh and November 25 power increased 0.1% to £84.05/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power moved 0.4% higher to £81.3/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 0.3% to £78.47/MWh, 4.6% higher than the same time last year (£75.05/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 12.0% to £64.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- October 25 peak power declined 0.6% to £85.30/MWh, while November 25 peak power increased 1.0% to £103.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power contract fell <0.1% to £90.78/MWh.
- This is 7.18% lower than the same time last year (£97.80/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts saw marginal gains last week, up on average by 0.7%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 0.1% and 0.4% respectively, rising to £83.10/MWh and £73.83/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts saw marginal losses last week, down by <0.1% on average.
- Summer 26 peak power rose 0.2% to £76.03/MWh, while winter 26 peak eased 0.3% to £97.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude across the week remained almost level when compared to the previous reporting period, as conflicting fundamentals impacted the price of the commodity
- Prices saw gains during the first half of the week as Russia undertook the largest airstrike on Kyiv since the war began in 2022, resulting in Donald Trump announcing that he was prepared to implement a new phase of sanctions on Russia, with the European Council also announcing that the EU was accelerating work on new measures
- We also saw that expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut supported prices due to expectations of increased demand following larger economic growth
- However, stronger gains were counterbalanced as the Financial Times reported that the U.S. will ask G7 members, as well as China and India, to impose steep tariffs on Russian oil
- Moreover, sustained production increases from OPEC+ continue to bolster market supply, driving prices down
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS prices started high at the beginning of the week, at €77.17/t. Through the week this price fell towards €75.00/t. Bearish factors outweighed the impact of reduced auction volumes and robust German industrial production, despite political instability and weak euro area investor sentiment
- The UK ETS market peaked mid-week with prices reaching €57.41/t, reaching a two-year high as the Danish Presidency of the Council of EU members stated that Copenhagen is keen to begin negotiations on linking the EU and UK emissions trading systems as quickly as possible. The merging of the markets could see an increased market value
- The European Parliament approved simplifying the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), set to launch in 2026 and impacting electricity, iron, steel, hydrogen and aluminum industries among others
- Across Europe, an increase in renewable generation, particularly wind, led to decreased demand for coal and gas-fired generation, in turn reducing demand for EUAs and lowering prices as a result
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight