Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Tracked power and gas contracts registered mixed movements last week. Day-ahead gas fell 2.3% to 75.60p/th due to geopolitical uncertainty ahead the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday evening. The easing of the heatwave seen in north-west Europe, and subsequent easing of disruption to French nuclear availability, also supported the drop in day-ahead gas price. September 25 gas was down 4.0% at 75.90p/th, and October 25 gas decreased 4.8% to 76.10p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 3.7% on average. Both winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropped 4.5% and 4.4% respectively, subsiding to 83.80p/th and 76.08p/th, and annual October 25 gas lost 4.5% to 79.94p/th. Day ahead power prices remained much more stable than the week prior due to lower levels of wind generation and a higher reliance on CCGTs in the middle of the week, with prices reaching £85.00/MWh by the end of the week, representing a 7.3% week-on-week increase. This was further support by an extension to the outage at Heysham 1 nuclear plant. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 2.6%, as winter 25 power decreased 3.3% to £80.50/MWh, while summer 26 fell 1.3% to £71.05/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 7.3% to £85/MWh, following heatwave conditions, fluctuations in renewable generation outturn and rising cooling demand.
- In addition, September 25 power slipped 5.5% at £73/MWh and October 25 power decreased 3.7% to £72/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power averaged £78.75/MWh across the week, down 3.4% on the previous week.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 2.4% to £75.78/MWh, 8.0% lower than the same time last year (£82.33/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 2.5% to £87.50/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart increase.
- September 25 peak power declined 4.3% at £78.75/MWh, and October 25 peak power decreased 4.8% to £83.5/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 2.3% to £87.75/MWh.
- This is 18.37% lower than the same time last year (107.5/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 2.6%.
- Winter 25 power decreased 3.3% to £80.50/MWh, while summer 26 fell 1.3% to £71.05/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 2.4% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power dropped 2.0% and 2.7% respectively, falling to £97.00/MWh and £72.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude oil stood at $66.31/bl last week – a fall of 1.8% week-on-week.
- As seen over previous weeks, prices continue to be driven down by bearish movements on the supply side, with the OPEC+ alliance announcing an increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September.
- In addition, non-OPEC producers such as Brazil and Norway have recently launched new production, further improving supply projections.
- Annual peak oil demand is expected to reach its end in the northern hemisphere as we move into late summer, reducing European demand.
- Trader sentiment was influenced by the expectation of a potential easing of U.S. sanctions against Russia amid the on-going peace talks.
- Furthermore, data from the Chinese Statistics Bureau showed the first year-on-year decline of 2025, a suggestion that China’s coal output could be easing in response to oversupply. China produced 380.99mn metric tons of coal in July, down 3.8% year-on-year.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor changes week-on-week, averaging £51.33/t (up 0.4%) and €71.44 (down 0.3%) respectively.
- Early in the week, wind generation was relatively low across the continent, boosting the demand for fossil fuel power and therefore providing bullish signals to adjustment to carbon prices.
- Additionally, heatwave conditions across much of Europe increased demand for energy intensive cooling appliances – further intensifying carbon consumption.
- However, carbon trading became relatively uncoupled to energy market dynamics, likely in anticipation of the Russia – US summit in Alaska, with the market awaiting news of any potential easing of sanctions on Russian gas or oil.
- The inconclusive outcome of Friday’s US-Russia summit in Alaska led to little impact on the European carbon markets, despite prior expectations that a geopolitical breakthrough could boost global equity markets. Any such breakthrough, however, may bring downward pressure on carbon credits as any lifting of sanctions on Russian energy would lower the premium for both gas and oil.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight