Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts fell this week, despite low wind outturn warmer than seasonal average temperatures resulting in lower gas generation demand. Day-ahead gas fell 3.1% to 79.50p/th, following lower demand levels. Day-ahead power fell 23.9% to £78.92/MWh, following reduced demand compared to the season average, despite low wind outturn. November 25 gas was down 1.1% at 80.83p/th, and December 25 gas decreased 1.2% to 82.83p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 1.6% on average, while both summer 26 and winter 26 gas dropped 1.2% and 1.9% respectively, subsiding to 75.63p/th and 82.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts saw losses last week, down on average by 0.8%, as summer 26 power decreased 0.5% to £71.55/MWh, while winter 26 fell 1.0% to £79.85/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 23.9% to £78.92/MWh, following subdued demand due to warmer-than-average temperatures.
- November 25 power climbed 0.1% at £82.90/MWh and December 25 power increased 0.5% to £81.25/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q126 power moved 0.3% higher to £84.25/MWh.
- The annual April 26 contract lost 0.8% to £75.70/MWh, 7.9% higher than the same time last year (£70.13/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 19.1% to £85.50/MWh, following trends seen across its baseload counterparts despite decreased wind outturn.
- November 25 peak power gained 1.8% at £103.68/MWh, and December 25 peak power increased 2.0% to £101.28/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 26 peak power rose 0.7% to £80.24/MWh
- This is 12.22% higher than the same time last year (71.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 0.8%.
- Summer 26 power decreased 0.5% to £71.55/MWh, while winter 26 fell 1.0% to £79.85/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw losses last week, down 0.6% on average.
- Summer 26 and winter 26 peak power dropped 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, falling to £73.95/MWh and £96.33/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude decreased week-on-week, down 4.9% to average $62.12/bl, reaching a peak of $63.26/bl on 13 October, with a trough closely following of $61.12 on 17 October.
- Brent crude oil prices were at their lowest price on 17 October since February 2021, at $61.12, due to further tariff threats from President Trump on China, following news of China’s curb on exports of rare earth elements, including gold.
- The period of bearish oil prices coincides with OPEC+ decision to increase production after years of supporting the markets through voluntary output cuts, increasing supply amid a time of sluggish economic growth.
- Looking forward, an IEA report has trimmed its 2025 demand growth forecast by 30,000 bpd, citing a harsher macro climate. These predictions come alongside predictions of a supply increase of 3 million bpd in the remainder of 2025. This may result in a continuation of bearish price trends.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- The average of both EU and UK ETS decreased week on week, by 0.7% and 0.4% respectively. A peak of €79.50/t was reached on 17 October in the EU ETS market, with the UK market reaching a high of £56.55/t a day prior.
- Lower Dutch TTF prices acted to offset the decrease in wind generation seen across the reporting period, leading to the small adjustments seen across both EU and UK ETS carbon across last week.
- A rise in coal prices across the reporting period resulted in decreased coal-fired generation, in turn reducing demand for carbon allowances across Europe.
- Current forecasts outline that output across the week ahead is set to average 30.2GW, more than 20% above the standard level, and the potential for an average of 51.6GW of wind on 24 October, which could set a new record
- Similarly, temperatures across central western Europe are forecast to rise to above seasonal averages, further limiting EUA demand.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight