Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
All tracked power and gas contracts registered bearish movements last week, with the exception of day ahead baseload power. Day-ahead gas saw bullish fundamentals across the majority of the week. However, by the end of the week, due to improved wind generation reducing gas-for-power demand – in addition to improved supply from Norway – gas prices fell 4.9% to 79.50p/th on16 July. On the other hand, day ahead baseload power prices started the week at £79.84/MWh on 14 July, before rising £88.98/MWh on 18 July, finding support from low wind generation – contributing to 11% of the generation mix on 17 July – in addition to an unexpected extension of the outage at the Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor. August 25 gas was down 6.1% at 80.40p/th, and September 25 gas decreased by 5.5% to 83.68p/th. Likewise, all seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 4.6% on average, with both winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropping 4.5% and 3.6% respectively, subsiding to 92.10p/th and 82.65p/th. All seasonal baseload power contracts saw losses last week, dropping 1.9% on average, as winter 25 power decreased 2.6% to £84.25/MWh, while summer 26 fell 2.0% to £72.25/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 11.8% to £88.98/MWh, following a period of low wind generation coupled with nuclear supply concerns.
- In addition, August 25 power decreased by 4.7% to £72.25/MWh and September 25 power fell 3.4% to £79.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power averaged £82.75/MWh across the week, down 3.1% on the previous week.
- The annual October 25 contract fell 2.3% to £78.25/MWh, 4.2% higher than the same time last year (£75.13/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 9.1% to £72.25/MWh, following its baseload counterpart decrease.
- August 25 peak power decreased by 7.2% at £73.75/MWh, and September peak power fell 1.7% to £83.35/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power fell 2.1% to £89.83/MWh.
- This is 6.6% lower than the same time last year (£84.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.9%.
- Winter 25 power decreased by 2.6% to £84.25/MWh, while summer 26 fell 2.0% to £72.25/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts saw losses last week, down 2.1% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power fell 2.7% and 3.3% respectively, to £99.25/MWh and £73.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude oil fell slightly week-on-week, reaching a low of $67.90/bl on 16 July, before rising to $70.45/bl on 18 July.
- Prices were driven down due to uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, which noted that the annual US consumer price had risen by more than forecast. This uptick in inflation tempered expectations for a Federal rate cut in September.
- Furthermore, supply concerns eased as OPEC announced that crude oil production rose by 220,000 barrels/day in June and the American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp rise in US crude inventories – both sending bearish signals to the market.
- On 18 July, the UK and EU announced a lowering of the crude oil price cap in September 2025 from $60/barrel to $47.60, with an aim to drive down the market value of Russian oil, Market participants will be keeping a close eye over coming months to determine the impacts this will have on investor certainty and crude oil prices
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU carbon prices rose week-on-week, with the UK ETS allowance price averaging £49.97/t and the EU ETS averaging €70.83/t
- Delays to the announcement of US tariffs on the EU continue place bullish pressure on carbon prices, as tariff uncertainty has the potential to disrupt trade flows, energy prices, and industrial output – hence reducing demand for carbon allowances
- During the week, the EU proposed formal negotiations to link the EU and UK ETS’s. Following a period of uncertainty on the market linkage this announcement provided bearish signals particularly in the UK market, and prices fell to £49.33/t
- Looking ahead, on 18 July the EU Council approved a two-year extension of emergency gas storage regulations; over the coming months this has the potential to exert downward pressure on gas and by extension, carbon prices. Furthermore, the EU released its 18th sanctions package on Russian energy which is set to include a full ban on the future operations Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines; there is potential that this could reinforce long-term gas supply constraints and boost demand for EU carbon
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight