Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
The majority of tracked power and gas contracts registered losses throughout last week, with day-ahead power as the only exception to the trend. Day-ahead power rose 1.7% to £82/MWh, with strong daily variance in wind outturn resulting in price volatility across the week. However, these weekly gains motivated by lower wind were limited by the milder weather leading to decreased demand and higher solar penetration across the week. Day-ahead gas fell 9.8% to 77.15p/th, following the higher-than-average temperature forecasts, limiting gas heating demand, coupled with the improved peace prospects between Russia and Ukraine, which would reduce the risk factor associated with the on-going conflict. May 25 gas was down 10.6% at 77.48p/th, and June 25 gas decreased 10.1% to 77.85p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 6.6% on average, both winter 25 and summer 26 gas dropped 9.3% and 8.6% respectively, subsiding to 87.00p/th and 74.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts also registered losses last week, down on average by 5.1%, as winter 25 power decreased 5.4% to £81.00/MWh, while summer 26 fell 6.4% to £67.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 1.7% to £82.00/MWh, following volatility in wind outturn across the week.
- May 25 power slipped 3.9% at £72.50/MWh and June 25 power decreased 4.9% to £72.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q325 power moved 5.7% lower to £74.00/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 5.9% to £74.00/MWh, 2.1% higher than the same time last year (£72.50/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 19.4% to £77.00/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
- May 25 peak power declined 4.0% at £72.75/MWh, and June 25 peak power decreased 6.3% to £73.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 5.2% to £85.57/MWh.
- This is 8.3% lower than the same time last year (93.30/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 5.1%.
- Winter 25 power decreased 5.4% to £81.00/MWh, while summer 26 fell 6.4% to £67.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 5.2% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power dropped 5.4% and 5.9% respectively, falling to £96.00/MWh and £69.60/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude saw minor bullish movements across the week, rising 1.5% to average $66.84/bl.
- US President Donald Trump stated that tariff negotiations were underway with China, though Beijing denied any talks were taking place. This added to a series of mixed signals about the progress of efforts to ease a trade war.
- Moreover, eight OPEC+ countries are considering accelerating production hikes for a second consecutive month in June. This comes after the group’s decision to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) from May, up from the initially planned 138,000 bpd.
- Looking ahead, the oil markets will likely continue to be impacted by varying signals from Donald Trump and Chinese officials regarding efforts to resolve the ongoing trade dispute – a conflict that could strongly impact global economic growth, leading to a decrease in oil demand.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Mixed movements were seen last week as UK ETS carbon saw minor gains of 0.2% to average £47.30/t, while EU ETS carbon decreased 1.4% to average €65.72/t.
- Fluctuations in the carbon market were driven by several factors, such as trade tensions, market dynamics, and investor behaviors as the May Day holiday will lead to reduced auction supply in the week ahead.
- Across the EU scheme, the impact of this tightening was limited by warmer weather conditions across the European continent, limiting overall heating demand, in turn reducing overall EUA demand.
- While GB also saw above-average temperatures, a marginal increase in prices was seen, stemming from periods of lower wind generation across the week, increasing the reliance on more carbon intensive forms of power generation.
- Also, HM Revenue & Customs published a technical consultation on its draft primary legislation for the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) – set to take effect on 1 January 2027.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
