Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most power and gas contracts were mixed last week, with generally minor gains. Power contracts saw bearish movements across the curve, with the exception of strong gains seen in the day ahead power curve. Warmer weather resulting in a decrease in demand for gas-fired generation. Day-ahead gas rose 1.4% to 80.75p/th, following warmer temperatures, with minimal wind generation shifting reliance to more expensive fuelled generation. Day-ahead power rose 24.5% to £98.2/MWh, due to French power strikes reducing import supply, and the lower temperatures at the start of the week, supporting stronger space heating demand. October 25 gas was up 0.9% at 81.00p/th, and November 25 gas increased 0.5% to 85.10p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 0.3% on average, while both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increased 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, lifting to 86.38p/th and 79.65p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.1%, as winter 25 power decreased 1.1% to £83.00/MWh, while summer 26 fell 1.7% to £74.00/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 76.9% to £18.03/MWh, following strong wind outturn in the week’s latter half.
- October 25 power slipped 0.2% to £74.25/MWh and November 25 power increased 0.1% to £84.05/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power moved 1.2% lower to £80.5/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract lost 1.4% to £78.50/MWh, 5.4% higher than the same time last year (£74.50/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 0.7% to £92.00/MWh, following the trends seen across its baseload counterpart.
- October 25 peak power declined 0.8% at £85.75/MWh, and November 25 peak power decreased 1.9% to £102.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 0.9% to £90.92/MWh.
- This is 5.78 lower than the same time last year (96.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 1.1%.
- Winter 25 power decreased 1.1% to £83.00/MWh, while summer 26 fell 1.7% to £74.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- Most Seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 1.0% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power dropped 1.6% and 1.9% respectively, falling to £98.50/MWh and £76.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- The average price of Brent crude increased week-on-week, up 1.1% to average $68.47/bl, reaching a peak of $70.43/bl on Friday.
- Brent crude hit a seven-week high as Russia banned diesel and gasoline exports after an attack on Ukrainian airspace. Since then, U.S. President Donald Trump has reiterated support for Ukraine, tightening market sentiment as the conflict continues to influence higher prices.
- OPEC+ are set to meet on 5 October to discuss raising output across November. If further production hikes are seen from the group, it is expected that Brent Crude will register a loss moving forward.
- While longer in timeframe, BP approved a $5 billion offshore oil drilling project in the U.S. Gulf, expected to start production by 2030. It is projected to produce 400,000 barrels equivalent of oil per day, highlighting the future role of Brent Crude across the United States.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS prices decreased steadily throughout the week, due to increased demand as a result of more gas-fired generation in colder weather. The ETS trough of €75.60/t occurred on Thursday, with Friday being the low of £54.55/t in the UK.
- The EU parliament delayed its 2040 climate target vote, while presently planning to accelerate the phase out of Russian fossil fuels. This may result in higher natural gas and oil prices, with an increase in EU carbon allowance prices.
- Upcoming above-average temperatures across GB could reduce demand for gas-fired generation, leading to potential bearish UK ETS prices.
- Current market forecasts for 2026 outline that EU ETS prices may see an increase due to increased demand from shipping and aviation sectors. Similarly, the shift towards renewable energy may lead to additional price fluctuations in the year ahead.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight