Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most gas and power contracts saw a bullish adjustment over the past week, with day-ahead gas acting as the only exception. Day-ahead gas fell 0.9% to 77.30p/th, following a mild cooling of temperatures, easing domestic cooling demand. This bearish support was mitigated by an unplanned outage at the Tolmount gas field, disrupting gas supply. Conversely, day-ahead power rose 61.0% to £78.00/MWh, with the large percentage change a reflection of the low prices seen in the week previous. This bullish movement was supported by lower wind generation forecasts towards the weeks end, which saw increased reliance on more expensive fuelled generation. October 25 gas was up 0.5% at 78.30p/th, and November 25 gas increased 1.4% to 83.90p/th. All seasonal gas contracts saw gains last week, up by 1.2% on average, both winter 25 and summer 26 gas increased 1.2% and 1.8% respectively, to 85.48p/th and 78.13p/th. Seasonal power contracts also underwent gains, up on average by 2.2%, as winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 1.4% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £83.00/MWh and £73.50/MWh.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 61.0% to £78.00/MWh, following a strong bullish adjustment from the previous weeks price lows, amid lower levels of wind and increased reliance on fuelled generation.
- October 25 power went up 1.8% at £74.40/MWh and November 25 power increased 1.3% to £84.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q425 power moved 1.6% higher to £81.00/MWh.
- The annual October 25 contract rose 2.0% to £78.25/MWh, 1.8% higher than the same time last year (£76.85/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 7.4% to £73.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart.
- October 25 peak power gained 1.4% at £85.85/MWh, and November 25 peak power increased 1.2% to £102.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual October 25 peak power rose 2.0% to £90.82/MWh.
- This is 9.6% lower than the same time last year (100.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts boosted last week, up on average by 2.2%.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 expanded 1.4% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £83.00/MWh and £73.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts rose last week, up 2.0% on average.
- Winter 25 and summer 26 peak power increased 1.1% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £98.80/MWh and £75.90/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude remained stable week-on-week, down 0.7% to average $67.50/bl, however prices fell to a three-month low of $65.46/bl on 5 September.
- Prices were driven down by expectations of rising supply and a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories, which act to signal slowing demand.
- In the week ending 29 August, U.S. commercial crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels according to data published by the Energy Information Administration.
- Moreover, OPEC+ has raised output by 547,000 barrels a day throughout September, and expectations of further increases in October continue to fuel oversupply concerns.
- Expectations of a cut by the Federal Reserve continues to drive crude oil prices, with investors expecting a lower-rate environment which acts to bolster oil demand as economic growth increases.
- Moreover, despite U.S. tariff increases from 25% to 50% on Indian imports of Russian oil, it is still expected that Russian exports to India will continue to rise, limiting price losses.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both UK and EU ETS carbon prices saw increases across the reporting period, with UK ETS boosting 4.6% and EU ETS carbon rising 3.3%, reaching the highest level seen since February 2025, at €76.00/t on 5 September.
- The price increase was the result of speculative interest, and compliance buying ahead of the 30 September deadline.
- As the 30 September deadline approaches, it is expected that demand will increase as companies look to purchase allowances ahead of it.
- This is especially important for shipping companies, as this deadline marks the first time they are required to surrender EUAs for their verified 2024 emissions under the EU ETS, pushing up demand for allowances as a result.
- Moreover, prices were supported as pessimism grows over peace talks and a potential ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, extending the security premium on contracts with the possibility of continued fighting.
- Likewise, across Europe, a decrease in renewable generation led to increased demand for coal and gas-fired generation, in turn bolstering demand for EUAs and higher prices as a result.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
Analysis provided by: Cornwall Insight