Headlines – UK Wholesale Gas and Electricity Prices
Latest news on UK wholesale energy market trends, with weekly, monthly, and yearly price updates on gas and electricity (day-ahead and year-ahead), coal, EUA carbon, UKA carbon, and Brent crude oil, plus key cost movements.
Most wholesale gas and power contracts experienced losses last week, opposing the trend seen in the week previous. Day-ahead gas fell 8.6% to 125.93p/th, after reaching the highest level seen since February 2023 at 144.90p/th on 10 February, finding bearish influence as improved weather forecasts for the remainder of February signalled lower demand across GB, in tandem with President Donald Trump pushing for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, adding further bearish influence to European gas supply security. Opposing its gas counterpart however, day-ahead power rose 2.5% to £114.14/MWh, following periods of tight system margins due to an outage across the 1.4GW VikingLink interconnector, alongside colder weather conditions and periods of lower wind generation. Returning to the bearish movements however, both March 25 and April 25 gas contracts fell, dropping 10.0% and 9.0% to 122.45p/th and 122.50p/th respectively. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts dropped last week, down by 8.3% on average, with summer 25 and winter 25 gas dropping 8.8% and 4.5% respectively, falling to 121.70p/th and 121.75p/th. Finding influence from the downward movement registered across its gas counterpart, all seasonal power contracts registered losses last week, down on average by 6.1%, as summer 25 power decreased 6.4% to £95.50/MWh, and winter 25 fell 3.1% to £102.00/MWh. Average Brent crude oil prices saw gains across the reporting period, rising 1.4% to average $76.05/bl, as higher prices were supported by concerns surrounding market supply, as the US Treasury Secretary outlined that the US wants to reduce Iran’s oil exports by more than 90%.
Baseload wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 2.5% to £114.14/MWh, following an outage across the 1.4GW VikingLink interconnector on the 11 February, with periods of low wind generation and below-average temperatures resulting in higher prices.
- However, March 25 power slipped 9.7% to £101.00/MWh and April 25 power decreased 7.3% to £99.60/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q225 power moved 7.1% lower to £95.00/MWh.
- The annual April 25 contract lost 4.7% to £98.75/MWh, 47.9% higher than the same time last year (£66.75/MWh).
Peak wholesale electricity price
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 23.1% to £110.30/MWh, opposing the movement seen across its baseload counterpart.
- March 25 peak power declined 10.4% at £111.50/MWh, and April 25 peak power decreased 14.4% to £99.60/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 25 peak power dropped 2.4% to £102.95/MWh.
- This is 53.1% higher than the same time last year (67.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts fell last week, down on average by 6.1%.
- Summer 25 power decreased 6.4% to £95.50/MWh, while winter 25 fell 3.1% to £102.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 2.5% on average.
- Summer 25 and winter 25 peak power dropped 4.0% and 0.8% respectively, falling to £104.65/MWh and £119.25/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Average Brent crude oil prices saw gains across the reporting period, rising 1.4% to average $76.05/bl, as prices remained elevated across the first half of the week, before registering daily losses as the week progresses.
- Higher prices were supported by concerns surrounding market supply, as the US Treasury Secretary outlined that the US wants to reduce Iran’s oil exports by more than 90%.
- However, stronger gains were limited as the EIA noted that crude oil inventories in the US saw an increase of 4.1 million barrels during the week beginning 7 February, highlighting continued strong supply across the country
- Select geopolitical situations, such as US crude inventory levels, increased Chinese demand, and peace talks around the Russia-Ukraine conflict have led the commodity entering into a period of heightened volatility in which prices are swayed by these factors regularly.
- A resolution to the end of the Russia-Ukraine war may lead to the US lifting sanctions on Russian, increasing supply on the global market.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Continuing with the trend seen over the past two weeks, the UK and EU carbon markets recorded diverging pricing fundamentals, impacting overall prices registered across the commodities. EU ETS prices fell by 1.0% to average €80.79/t, while UK ETS carbon rose 2.9% to £47.01/t.
- Across the UK ETS, prices were supported by reduced wind generation on the system at the beginning of the week increasing reliance on more expensive forms of power generation, typically gas-fired, to meet demand levels – as a result UK ETS carbon prices rose to the highest level seen since June 2024 at £48.34/t on 10 February.
- However, UK ETS carbon prices registered losses as the week progressed, ending the week at £46.76/t due to a period of increased wind generation levels.
- Similarly, decreased Dutch TTF prices supported losses across the EU ETS across the week, with prices falling to a monthly low of €78.16/t on 13 February.
- DESNZ opened a consultation proposing to extend the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) beyond the end of phase one, which is set to end on 31 December 2030, outlining that it would help to drive decarbonisation moving forward.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
