Most near-term gas and power contracts decreased this week; however, long-term contracts moved higher. Day-ahead gas fell 28.1% to 23.0p/th, with warmer than expected temperatures resulting in weaker gas demand. In addition, the arrival of three LNG tankers kept the system comfortably supplied. This also weighed on the month-ahead contract, which slipped 1.4% to 42.4p/th. Further along the curve, summer 20 gas rose 2.8% to 44.3p/th and winter 20 gas climbed 2.7% to 53.7p/th. Day-ahead power lost 4.0% to £41.0/MWh, amid strong levels of wind generation throughout the week. November 19 power dropped 0.9% to £49.1/MWh. Seasonal power contracts followed their gas counterparts with summer 20 power lifting 2.0% to £47.7/MWh and winter 20 power gaining 1.8% to £54.8/MWh. Brent crude oil slipped 0.7% to average $58.7/bl, pressured by ongoing concerns of slowing global demand growth and a larger than expected rise in US crude stocks. API 2 coal gained 2.9% to average $67.6/t, driven by lower domestic coal production and low coal stocks in India and a decrease in gas-fired generation in Germany. EU ETS carbon fell 5.2% to average €23.0/t, amid lower thermal generation as a result of strong wind output and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Brexit and US-China trade talks.
Day-ahead power lost 4.0% to £41.0/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower.
Month-ahead power slipped 0.9% to £49.1/MWh, while December 19 power lifted 0.1% to £52.4/MWh.
Q120 power gained 0.6% to £54.8/MWh.
The annual April 20 power contract climbed 1.9% to end the week at £51.2/MWh. This is down 5.9% lower than the same time last year (£54.5/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October Contract
Day-ahead peak power lifted 4.6% to £49.0/MWh, £8.0/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
November 19 peak power lost 0.9% to £56.2/MWh.
December 19 peak power edged 0.2% higher to £58.7/MWh.
Annual April 20 peak power was 1.9% higher at £57.0/MWh, £5.8/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
The contract is 4.0% below its value this time last month (£59.4/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal baseload power contracts rose, increasing 2.5% on average.
Summer 20 power gained 2.0% to £47.7/MWh, while winter 20 climbed 1.8% to £54.8/MWh.
Seasonal peak power contracts were 1.9% higher on average.
Summer 20 peak power lifted 1.6% to £51.6/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude oil slipped 0.7% to average $58.7/bl.
Prices were pressured by ongoing concerns of slowing global demand growth.
In addition, a larger than expected rise in US crude stocks provided further downward momentum.
However, prices received some support on Friday following reports of a missile attack on an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia.
API 2 coal prices gained 2.9% to average $67.6/t.
Low coal stocks in India and decreasing coal production in the country provided support to coal prices..