Headlines
Most power and gas contracts fell this week. Day-ahead gas dropped 3.4% to 18.5p/th following general oversupply on the NTS as both the Langeled pipeline and Barrow terminal saw higher flows this week. Day-ahead power was an exception and rose 8.1% to £37.25/MWh on forecasts of lower wind generation towards the start of next week. September 20 gas was down 4.7% at 20.60p/th, and October 20 gas decreased 2.9% to 23.15p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 0.7% on average. Winter 20 and summer 21 gas dropped 0.2% and 0.8% respectively, subsiding to 34.2p/th and 30p/th. All seasonal baseload power contracts declined this week, down on average by 2.0%, as winter 20 power decreased 2.0% to £46.15/MWh, while summer 21 fell 2.2% to £40.10/MWh. Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.7% to average $45.07/bl this week, continuing last week’s trend. Prices were supported mid-week by another weekly decline in US crude inventory levels. However, the decision by OPEC+ producers to ease production cuts at the start of August provided downward pressure to prices. The EU ETS price reversed the previous week’s gains, falling 1.3% to average €26.17/t, as a result of weaker demand at EUA auctions.
Baseload electricity | | |
- Day-ahead power rose 8.1% to £37.25/MWh as fluctuating wind generation saw volatility in the contract throughout the week.
- September 20 power slipped 6.8% to £36.35/MWh and October 20 power decreased 2.6% to £38.00/MWh.
| | - Q420 power moved 2.0% lower to £44.10/MWh.
- The annual October 20 contract lost 2.1% to £43.13/MWh, 16.4% lower than the same time last year (£51.59/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison | | Annual October Contract |
Peak electricity | | |
- Day-ahead peak power was up 3.9% to £40.00/MWh following its baseload counterpart higher.
- September 20 peak power declined 2.2% to £41.48/MWh, and October 20 peak power increased 3.5% to £44.7/MWh.
| | - The annual October 20 peak power contract lost 0.2% to £49.27/MWh.
- This is 14.7% lower than the same time last year (57.73/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison
| | Annual October contract
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Seasonal power prices | | |
Seasonal baseload power contracts | | Seasonal baseload power curve |
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 2.0%.
- Winter 20 power decreased 2.0% to £46.15/MWh, while summer 21 fell 2.2% to £40.1/MWh.
| | - Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 0.7% on average.
- Winter 20 gas increased 0.3% to £53.96/MWh, while summer 21 peak power dropped 0.7% to £44.58/MWh.
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Commodity price movements | | |
Oil and Coal | | Carbon
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- Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.7% to average $45.07/bl this week, continuing last week’s trend.
- Prices were weighed upon this week by rising fears of market oversupply, following the decision by OPEC+ producers to ease production cuts at the start of August.
- Both the IEA and OPEC this week cut their 2020 demand forecasts for oil, indicating a weakening outlook for the coming months.
- The Brent price was supported mid-week, with the EIA reporting another weekly decline in US crude inventory levels.
- The continued decline in US oil stock indicates rising consumption in the country, despite the rising number of COVID-19 cases being reported.
| | - API 2 coal dropped 3.9% this week to average $57.54/t.
- Spain announced this week that an additional 1.2GW of coal generational capacity would be closed by 2022.
- The EU ETS price reversed the previous week’s gains, falling 1.3% to average €26.17/t, as a result of weaker demand at EUA auctions.
- The markets were cautious over the number of future EUA’s in circulation at auctions.
- With supply having been reduced so far in August, full-sized auctions are set to resume in the Autumn, which will likely weigh on prices.
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Wholesale price snapshot |