Headlines
This week saw predominately bearish price movements for wholesale gas and power contracts in GB. We continue to observe volatility particularly in nearer-term contracts, but with the general pricing sentiment over recent weeks largely trending downwards. Day-ahead gas fell 25.1% to 125.00p/th, taking direction from lowering prices on the continent towards the end of the week as EU gas storage levels reach near 100% fullness. Day-ahead power fell 6.3% to £150.00/MWh, driven in part by bearish movements across near-term gas and carbon contracts. Similarly, November 22 gas was down 7.8% at 268.00p/th, and December 22 gas decreased 6.3% to 410.00p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 3.2% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas dropped 2.3% and 5.3% respectively, subsiding to 368.00p/th and 377.00p/th. Like their equivalent gas contract, all seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.6%, as summer 23 power decreased 6.2% to £305.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 4.3% to £330.00/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 6.3% to £150.00/MWh, following the strong bearish movements set from its equivalent gas contract, along with easing carbon prices
- November 22 power slipped 18.0% at £410.00/MWh and December 22 power decreased 6.3% to £600.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q123 power moved 11.2% higher to £745.00/MWh.
- The annual April 23 contract lost 5.2% to £317.5/MWh, 261.3% higher than the same time last year (£87.88/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 18.7% to £191.00/MWh, following baseload power lower.
- November 22 peak power declined 10.8% at £700/MWh, and December 22 peak power increased 4.4% to £940/MWh
Annual October contract
- The annual April 23 peak power rose 6.5% to £379.5/MWh
- This is 375.0% higher than the same time last year (79.9/MWh).)
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.6%.
- Summer 23 power decreased 6.2% to £305.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 4.3% to £330.00/MWh.
Seasonal baseload power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 6.7% on average.
- Summer 23 and winter 23 peak power dropped 8.9% and 4.5% respectively, falling to £334.00/MWh and £425.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude prices rose 3.5% last week to average $94.45/bl. Last week, brent crude prices registered their second consecutive week of price rises on average, reversing what had previously represented a period of bearishness.
- Cuts to OPEC+ supply targets also continue to provide a foundation of price support, with production cuts of 2mn bpd set to come into effect from 1 November.
- Strikes at Total Energies French refinery and storage sites also provides some bullish price support, with subsequent concerns over supply disruption.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU and UK ETS prices saw downward movements this week. EU ETS fell 0.8% to average €67.24/t, whilst UK ETS carbon retracted 2.2% to £72.16/t.
- Some bearishness for European and UK carbon prices can be attributed to forecasts of ‘above average’ seasonal temperatures expected across next week.
- Prices for carbon remain volatile at a time where the uncertainty surrounding fossil fuel supply into Europe and the UK is a prominent lever for price movement
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
