Headlines
Mixed movements were observed in GB wholesale gas and power markets this week; near-term contracts continued to decline on low consumption forecasts amid the coronavirus, while several further reaching contracts followed global commodities higher, with some analysts predicting a quicker bounce-back in demand than was previously expected. Day-ahead gas fell 14.3% to 12.85p/th as a result of milder weather forecast for next week. Day-ahead power fell 15.7% to £21.70/MWh, weighed on by its gas counterpart and mild weather. June 20 gas was down 12.2% at 12.64p/th and July 20 gas decreased 15.2% to 12.98p/th. In contrast, all seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 1.6% on average. Winter 20 and summer 21 gas increased 0.3% and 1.9% respectively, lifting to 32.63p/th and 29.65p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 1.5%. Winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 1.2% and 1.8% respectively, rising to £41.65/MWh and £36.86/MWh. Brent crude oil prices rose 2.5% this week to average $30.26/bl with relatively little movements seen, though indicators towards the end of the week saw a rise in prices on 15 May. EU ETS carbon prices fell a further 2.1% to average €18.79/t, despite prices rising to €19.19/t on 15 May on colder weather and lower renewables output in Europe.
Baseload electricity | | |
- Day-ahead power fell 15.7% to £21.70/MWh on lower consumption forecasts for next week with milder weather expected.
- June 20 power slipped 2.1% to £25.30/MWh and July 20 power decreased 5.1% to £25.85/MWh.
| | - Q320 power moved 3.8% lower to £28.04/MWh
- The Annual October 20 contract rose 1.5% to £39.26/MWh, but was 23.6% lower than the same time last year (£51.39/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison | | Annual October Contract |
Peak electricity | | |
- Day-ahead peak power was down 11.2% to £23.75/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
- June 20 peak power declined 2.1% to £28.30/MWh, and July 20 peak power decreased 4.6% to £29.28/MWh.
| | - The annual October 20 peak power lost 0.5% to 44.10/MWh.
- This is 23.5% lower than the same time last year (57.61/MWh).
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Forward curve comparison
| | Annual October contract
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Seasonal power prices | | |
Seasonal baseload power contracts | | Seasonal baseload power curve
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- Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 1.5%.
- Winter 20 and summer 21 power expanded 1.2% and 1.8% respectively, rising to £41.65/MWh and £36.86/MWh.
| | - Most seasonal peak power contracts opposed their baseload counterparts and declined this week, down 0.3% on average.
- Winter 20 and summer 21 peak power dropped 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £47.73/MWh and £40.47/MWh.
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Commodity price movements | | |
Oil and Coal | | Carbon
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- Brent crude oil prices rose 2.5% to average $30.26/bl as relatively minimal movements were seen throughout this week compared to recent times.
- Prices were supported midweek by reports from the IEA showing an unexpected drop in US crude inventories, the first such drop for 15 weeks.
- News that oil storage levels fell by 0.7mn barrels helped a 3% rise in Brent crude oil prices.
- Further indicators towards the end of the week that demand could slowly be resurging helped prices lift back over $32/bl.
- Particularly influential in price movements was data from China, showing that refineries had increased operations in April.
- Further support was lent to Brent on the supply side, with Saudi Arabia committing to deeper cuts.
| | - EU ETS carbon prices fell a further 2.1% to average €18.79/t, despite prices rising to €19.19/t on 15 May on colder weather and lower renewables output in Europe.
- API 2 prices rose slightly to $53.12/t as coal prices continued to show minimal movements but could start to lift higher on increasing Chinese imports.
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Wholesale price snapshot |