15 October 2021


The higher wholesale price benchmarks set across the last month continued again this week, albeit showed signs of softening from the recent spell of strong day-on-day price volatility. Day-ahead gas slipped 1.7% to 226.00p/th, following a more comfortable supply picture through both higher domestic and Norwegian supply volumes. Day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £200.00/MWh, with stronger wind generation seen broadly throughout the week, combined with softening demand in parallel. November 21 gas was down 3.4% at 247.62p/th, and December 21 gas decreased 3.3% to 255.66p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts increased this week, up by 5.9% on average. Summer 22 and winter 22 gas gained 10.6% and 9.8% respectively, lifting to 109.85p/th and 112.85p/th. Most seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 0.1%, as summer 22 and winter 22 climbed 8.1% and 6.4% to £114.04/MWh and £117.00/MWh, respectively.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power fell 6.1% to £200.00/MWh, following periods of lower demand and higher wind outturn.
  • November 21 power slipped 1.6% to.00 £250.97/MWh and December 21 power increased 3.0% to £257.50/MWh.
  • Q122 power moved 5.0% lower to £247.00/MWh.
  • The annual April 22 contract rose 7.2% to £115.52/MWh, 146.2% higher than the same time last year (£46.93/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison

Annual April Contract

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was down 10.6% to £210.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
  • November 21 peak power gained 3.3% to £315.00/MWh, and December 21 peak power increased 5.0% to £314.00/MWh.
  • The annual April 22 peak power rose 2.4% to £139.25/MWh
  • This is 162.5% higher than the same time last year (£53.05/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual April contract

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • Most seasonal power contracts lifted this week, up on average by 0.1%.
  • Summer 22 and winter 22 rose 8.1% and 6.4% respectively, to £114.04/MWh and £117.00/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts increased this week, up 1.4% on average.
  • Summer 22 peak power climbed 5.5% to £125.50/MWh, while winter 22 peak power remained at £153.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal


  • Brent crude prices rose again this week, up 3.4% to $83.95/bl. Prices also reached a fresh three-year high on 15 October, at $84.74/bl.
  • The global picture of Brent crude remains tight. Higher demand profiles across many global markets with less supply has provided a strong undercurrent of support to price over the best part of a month.
  • The underlying tight supply outlook has still not persuaded OPEC+ to increase supply to satisfy heightened demand in the market, continuing to support higher prices.
  • The strong bullish sentiment for carbon markets subsided again this week, albeit both the UK and EU ETS remain at heightened price points by comparison to earlier this year.
  • Subsequently, the UK ETS fell 1.8% to £64.90/t with the EU ETS dropping 3.4% to €59.90/t.
  • Wider bullishness from Brent crude markets did lend some support to carbon markets in part, but was offset by what continues to be a particularly volatile period for wholesale markets.
Wholesale price snapshot 

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