20 August 2021


On balance, the picture for gas and power prices this week was predominately mixed, but slightly favouring a more bearish outlook. Whilst a significant amount of contracts across gas and power markets fell this week, prices generally remain at significant highs, achieving record highs in the week also. Day-ahead gas fell 6.1% to 103.25p/th, in what transpired as a relatively volatile week for gas prices. Prices exceeded three-year highs across three separate days during the week, predominately buoyed by higher gas-for-power demand. Friday-on-Friday prices ultimately fell with the announcement from Gazprom that they could pump 5.6bcm of gas via Nord Stream 2, with flows expected by the end of this year. Day-ahead power rose 1.9% to £107/MWh, taking direction from bullish price movements on near-term gas contracts, particularly at the mid-points of the week. A three-year high was also achieved on 18 August at £128.00/MWh. September 21 gas was down 9.0% at 102.96p/th, and October 21 gas decreased 8.1% to 106.04p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 3.1% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 7.5% and 4.3% respectively, subsiding to 107.17p/th and 68.79p/th. The majority of seasonal power contracts fell this week, down on average by 2.2%, as winter 21 power decreased 5.1% to £107.50/MWh, while summer 22 fell 3.8% to £75.25/MWh.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 1.9% to £107/MWh, taking direction from gas prices, particularly at the week’s start.
  • September 21 power slipped 6.9% at £101.75/MWh and October 21 power decreased 1.6% to £110/MWh.
  • Q421 power moved 4.4% lower to £109.95/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract lost 4.6% to £91.38/MWh, 99.2% higher than the same time last year (£45.87/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Curve Comparison 20 August 2021

Annual October Contract

Annual October Contract 20 August 2021

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was up 4.5% to £115.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
  • September 21 peak power gained 2.1% at £112/MWh, and October 21 peak power increased 2.0% to £110.99/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 peak power contract fell 7.3% to £102.63/MWh.
  • This is 99.3% lower than the same time last year (51.5/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Forward Curve Comparison 20 August 2021

Annual October contract

Annual October Curve 20 August 2021

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • The majority of seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 2.2%.
  • Winter 21 power decreased 5.1% to £107.50/MWh, while summer 22 fell 3.8% to £75.25/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 8.4% on average.
  • Winter 21 gas increased 13.7% to £128.75/MWh, while summer 22 peak power dropped 1.9% to £76.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal


  • Brent crude oil slipped for the third consecutive week this week. As such, prices averaged 2.7% lower than the previous week at $68.31/bl.
  • In conjunction with these losses, on 20 August, Brent crude slipped to a three-month low of $66.31/bl.
  • The primary driver of bearish movements stemmed from demand concerns.
  • Reports circulating this week highlighted rising Covid-19 cases and the increased prevalence of variants, which continues to intensify concern within the market.
  • The UK carbon market rose for the fourth consecutive week, building on strong recorded gains. Subsequently the UK ETS rose 2.4% to £49.23/t, with the EU ETS rebelling these bullish price movements, down 0.3% to €56.59/t, however.
  • The UK ETS also breached £50.00/t on 17 August, its highest since the opening week of the scheme.
  • Bullish supporting trends across carbon markets remain relatively consistent. Tighter gas markets, across North-West Europe and the UK bolster prices. Similarly, lowering auction volumes in August continue to lend support, driving increased competition for limited EUA’s.
Wholesale price snapshot 

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