It was a largely bullish week again for GB gas and power markets this week, building on recent upward drivers. Subsequently, day-ahead gas rose 3.1% to 90.00p/th, rebounding from losses in the week prior, driven by the continued low levels of gas in storage and reduced North Sea pipeline flows in the week . Day-ahead power rose 4.1% to £96.00/MWh, buoyed by higher gas prices and low wind output. August 21 gas was up 2.5% at 88.97p/th, and September 21 gas increased 3.1% to 90.65p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 0.5% on average, with winter 21 and summer 22 gas rising 1.5% and 0.4% respectively, lifting to 93.60p/th and 56.00p/th. Seasonal power contracts saw similar movements, up on average by 0.1%, as winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, growing to £95.00/MWh and £63.00/MWh. Brent crude oil fell 4.5% to average $71.47/bl this week. A significant driving force of downward movements this week for Brent crude prices can be attributed to the outcome of recent OPEC+ discussions. The discussions concluded with members agreeing to boost production in August. It was a third consecutive week of bearish price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS fell 1.6% to €51.99/t, with the UK ETS falling 0.8% to £43.30/t. Whilst prices across both the UK and EU ETS dropped, prices are still high by comparison to prices earlier this year.
Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 4.1% to £96.00/MWh, following gas price movements on the near curve and buoyed by the continuation of lower wind output in part.
August 21 power climbed 0.7% at £89.35/MWh and September 21 power increased 0.9% to £90.65/MWh.
Q421 power was unchanged at £95.75/MWh.
The annual October 21 contract rose 0.3% to £79/MWh, 70.6% higher than the same time last year (£46.3/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was up 4.4% to £103.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart upwards.
August 21 peak power gained 0.2% at £89/MWh, and September 21 peak power increased 3.8% to £97.2/MWh.
The annual October 21 peak power lost 3.5% to £83.5/MWh.
This is 59.7% lower than the same time last year (52.28/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
Most seasonal power contracts saw slight gains this week, up on average by 0.1%.
Winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, rising to £95.00/MWh and £63.00/MWh.
The majority of seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 1.7% on average.
Winter 21 gas increased 1.1% to £105.00/MWh, while summer 22 peak power dropped 10.4% to £62.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Carbon
Brent crude oil fell 4.5% to average $71.47/bl this week.
A combination of bearish factors contributed to the price losses in Brent crude oil across this week.
A significant driving force of downward movements this week for Brent crude prices can be attributed to the outcome of recent OPEC+ discussions. The discussions concluded with members agreeing to boost production in August, something which had previously been avoided to prevent market oversupply in an uncertain landscape amid on-going demand recovery concerns from coronavirus.
Sustained losses were capped by projections of tighter supply for the remainder of 2021.
It was a third consecutive week of bearish price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS fell 1.6% to €51.99/t, with the UK ETS falling 0.8% to £43.30/t.
Whilst prices across both the UK and EU ETS declined, prices are still high by comparison to prices earlier this year.
Prices this week took direction from wider commodity markets.
Lowering gas prices, weaker Brent crude prices and expectations of increased wind generation in parts of North-West Europe dampening demand for fossil fuel generation.
Wholesale price snapshot
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