Energy Wholesale Market Review – 25 November 2022


This week saw the continuation of bullish price movements across gas and power wholesale contracts, but we continue to note the ongoing pricing disparity between day-ahead contracts and those further out on the forward curve. Day-ahead gas rose 11.8% to 152.00p/th, following the gradual decline in seasonal average temperatures this week, placing higher demand on gas-fired assets to meet demand coupled with select periods of system undersupply observed throughout the week. Day-ahead power rose 64.5% to £255.00/MWh, following the upward price direction of its gas equivalent contract and forecasts of significantly tightened system margins expected early next week – driving a £113.00/MWh price rise from 24 into 25 November. Elsewhere, December 22 gas was up 10.4% at 286.00p/th, and January 23 gas increased 6.4% to 317.00p/th. The majority of seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 2.0% on average, while both summer 23 and winter 23 gas increased 9.4% and 6.5% respectively, lifting to 304.00p/th and 319.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by 5.0%, as summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 9.7% and 7.7% respectively, rising to £277.00/MWh and £315.00/MWh.

Baseload electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead power rose 64.5% to £255.00/MWh, predominately driven by a significant upturn in price on Friday 25 November, with the ESO forecasting notably tight system conditions early next week.
  • December 22 power climbed 18.1% at £310.00/MWh and January 23 power decreased 0.7% to £442.00/MWh.

Annual October contract

  • Q123 power moved 12.2% higher to £415.00/MWh.
  • The annual April 23 contract rose 8.6% to £296/MWh, 234.5% higher than the same time last year (£88.5/MWh).

Peak electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead peak power was up 53.7% to £300.25/MWh, following baseload power higher.
  • December 22 peak power gained 11.3% at £392.25/MWh, and January 23 peak power increased 4.5% to £810.25/MWh.

Annual October contract

  • The annual April 23 peak power rose 6.5% to £360.25/MWh
  • This is 238.6% higher than the same time last year (106.38/MWh).

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

  • All seasonal power contracts increased this week, up 5.0% on average.
  • Summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 9.7% and 7.7% respectively, rising to £277.00/MWh and £315.00/MWh.

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • Most seasonal peak power contracts also experienced gains this week, up 6.6% on average.
  • Summer 23 and winter 23 peak power increased 7.1% and 6.0% respectively, rising to £316.25/MWh and £404.25/MWh.

Commodity price movements

Oil and coal

  • Brent crude prices fell week-on-week, down 6.4% to average $86.85/bl, a second consecutive week of price decreases
  • Uncertainty in global commodity markets continue to exacerbate volatility in price, particularly evident over recent months
  • For this week more specifically, brent crude prices were hit with significant losses early in the week, as reports emerged that OPEC+ nations were considering supply increases, after production was cut by 2mn bpd the organisation last month

Carbon (UK and EU ETS)

  • EU and UK ETS prices saw mixed price movements this week. EU ETS climbed 2.7% to average €75.92/t, whereas UK ETS carbon decreased 1.0% to £68.16/t
  • EU ETS prices were supported this week by forecasts of colder upcoming temperatures on the continent, acting to encourage demand for gas and fossil fuel-fired assets

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday

Power to make change

We believe that people power can change the world. We are here to help you have a positive impact on the planet. Together we can make a difference.

Take the next step

Becoming Net Zero

Leading by example, we became carbon neutral in 2023 and are committed to achieving net zero business emissions by 2030.

Read our strategy

Employee Ownership

As an Employee Ownership Trust we embrace the three pillars of good communication, governance and leadership, putting our people first.

Learn more about us

We will be by your side

Staying at the forefront of industry, we embrace and drive change, delivering solutions at pace and scale to meet the modern challenges of energy and sustainability.

Meet our people