Wholesale power and gas contracts experienced mixed movements week-on-week. All near-term wholesale power and gas contracts fell, amid comfortable gas supplies and above seasonal normal temperatures. Contracts further along the curve were supported by a further recovery in Brent crude oil, which went above $75/bl for the first time in five months. All near-term baseload power contracts fell week-on-week, following their gas counterparts lower, despite another weekly rise in EU ETS carbon prices. Day-ahead power slipped 0.6% to end the week at £44.0/MWh. Seasonal power contracts experienced mixed movements, rising 0.4% on average. All near-term gas contracts fell this week, pressured by above seasonal normal temperatures and comfortable gas supplies. Week-on-week, day-ahead gas dropped 4.3% to 33.8p/th. The contract started the week at 27.0p/th, a two-year low as the gas system was oversupplied after Easter weekend. Nearly all seasonal contracts rose week-on-week, up 0.3% on average, following oil prices higher. Brent crude oil prices rose 4.0% to average $74.3/bl, its seventh consecutive weekly increase. API 2 coal prices fell 2.7% to average $72.7/t this week, pressured by weak demand and high coal stocks at key ARA terminals. Average EU ETS carbon prices were slightly higher at €27.1/t this week. Prices were supported by the upcoming compliance deadline on 30 April.
Day-ahead power slipped 0.6% to end the week at £44.0/MWh, despite forecasts of low wind output.
May and June 19 power were down 3.2% and 2.7% to £43.2/MWh and £44.1/MWh respectively.
Annual October 19 power decreased slightly, down 0.3% week-on-week to £55.6/MWh.
The contract is 12.1% above the same time last month (£49.6/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April Contract
Day-ahead peak power rose 0.5% to £46.5/MWh, £2.5/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
Day-ahead peak power is 26.4% lower than the same time last year when it was £63.2/MWh.
May and June 19 peak power fell 3.2% and 2.4% to £46.1/MWh and £48.6/MWh, respectively.
Annual October 19 peak power was unchanged at £61.3/MWh, £5.7/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
The contract is 11.1% higher than its value this time last month (£55.1/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
Seasonal power contracts experienced mixed movements, rising 0.4% on average.
Winter 19 and summer 21 power fell, down 0.7% and 0.4% at £60.0/MWh and £48.9/MWh respectively.
Seasonal peak power contracts rose 0.6% on average, with only winter 19 falling, down 0.2% to £67.1/MWh.
Summer and winter 20 peak contracts were up 0.3% and 1.2% at £55.4/MWh and £66.2/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude oil prices rose 4.0% to average $74.3/bl, its seventh consecutive weekly increase.
Prices rose to a fresh five-month high above $75.0/bl early in the week following news that the US government would end all Iranian sanction waivers by the end of May, causing concerns of a tighter market.
However, prices dropped back below $73.0/bl on 26 April on reports that OPEC+ is likely to end current production cuts after June.
API 2 coal prices fell 2.7% to average $72.7/t this week, pressured by weak demand and high coal stocks at key ARA terminals.
According to government data published on 25 April, UK coal imports in February were down 14% y-o-y, at 694,000t following a decline in coal-fired generation.
Average EU ETS carbon prices were slightly higher at €27.1/t this week.
Prices were again supported by lower auction volumes following the Easter Monday holiday, with the upcoming compliance deadline on 30 April also encouraging some last-minute buying.
However, traders continue to be cautious as cheap gas prices provide downside risk and encourage coal to gas switching, therefore lowering demand for EUA buying.
Wholesale price snapshot
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