Bullish momentum across gas and power markets continued this week, following a short-lived bearish period of prices in the week prior. Subsequently, day-ahead gas rose 12.8% to 116.50p/th, following a stronger demand profile observed throughout the majority of the week, combined with lowering Norwegian gas flows, restricting gas supply into GB in turn. Day-ahead power mirrored the bullish trends observed in gas contracts, rising 1.4% to £108.5/MWh, taking direction from the gas market and higher demand in the week. September 21 gas was up 14.1% at 117.50p/th, and October 21 gas increased 11.8% to 118.50p/th. Seasonal gas contracts experienced similar upward movement, rising by 7.3% on average. This saw both winter 21 and summer 22 gas growing 12.7% and 5.4% respectively, lifting to 120.80p/th and 72.50p/th. All seasonal power contracts also grew, up 5.0% on average. Brent crude prices rebounded this weeks, with week-on-week prices rising for the first time in four weeks. As such, prices rose 2.7% to $70.13/bl. The UK ETS fell for the first time in nearly five weeks this week, subsequently falling 0.4% lower to £49.02/t. The EU ETS shared these losses, down 0.2% to €56.49/t.
Day-ahead power rose 1.4% to £108.5/MWh, following periods of stronger demand in the week and taking direction from notable gains in near-term gas contracts.
September 21 power climbed 10.1% at £112/MWh and October 21 power increased 3.6% to £114/MWh.
Q421 power moved 6.4% higher to £117/MWh.
The annual October 21 contract rose 7.0% to £97.75/MWh, 98.7% higher than the same time last year (£49.2/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison
Annual October Contract
Day-ahead peak power was up 1.3% to £116.50/MWh, taking direction from its baseload counterpart.
September 21 peak power gained 6.2% at £118.99/MWh, and October 21 peak power increased 9.3% to £121.31/MWh.
The annual October 21 peak power contract rose 6.6% to £109.38/MWh.
This is 105.1% higher than the same time last year (£53.32/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by 5.0%.
Winter 21 and summer 22 expanded 8.4% and 5.0% respectively, rising to £116.50/MWh and £79.00/MWh.
All Seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, rising 8.0% on average.
Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power increased 3.1% and 12.4% respectively, falling to £132.75/MWh and £86.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude prices rebounded this weeks, with week-on-week prices rising for the first time in four weeks. As such, prices rose 2.7% to $70.13/bl.
Prices generally recovered further as the week matured, exceeding $70.0/bl on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Full regulatory approval of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in the US boosted market optimism significantly, helping to support market recovery concerns.
Elsewhere, prices were supported by healthy demand reports in the US, despite Coronavirus variant concerns and strong reductions in Singapore fuel stocks seen later in the week
The UK ETS fell for the first time in nearly five weeks this week, subsequently falling 0.4% lower to £49.02/t. The EU ETS shared these losses, down 0.2% to €56.49/t.
Despite the stated marginal weekly losses, prices generally remain high, with support being placed from wider international commodity markets.
Losses were pegged back at the end of the week ahead of reduced auctions next week
As we progress further towards Autumn, we will likely see the return of increased EUA auction volumes, which may stifle prices.
Wholesale price snapshot
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