Wholesale gas and power prices were relatively mixed throughout last week, with losses observed on day-ahead power contract and front month contracts more generally, with gains seen further out along the forward curve – a relatively consistent trend observed in recent weeks. Day-ahead gas rose 14.7% to 133.00p/th, following periods of stronger gas-for-power demand coupled with lower Norwegian gas flows into the UK during the week. Unlike its equivalent gas contract, day-ahead power fell 12.5% to £140.00/MWh, with periods of higher wind outturn coupled with lower trending demand heading into the Jubilee bank holiday. July 22 gas was up 3.2% at 166.54p/th, and August 22 gas increased 8.1% to 185.48p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 5.3% on average, while both winter 22 and summer 23 gas increased 3.8% and 6.4% respectively, lifting to 241.50p/th and 182.00p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts grew last week, up on average by 3.0%, as winter 22 and summer 23 expanded 5.1% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £247.50/MWh and £167.50/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power fell 12.5% to £140/MWh, following periods of higher wind outturn and lowering demand into the bank holiday weekend.
July 22 power slipped 0.3% at £174.5/MWh and August 22 power decreased 4.6% to £179/MWh.
Q322 power moved 0.6% higher to £192/MWh.
The annual October 22 contract rose 4.1% to £207.5/MWh, 248.3% higher than the same time last year (£59.58/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison
Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was down 17.1% to £145.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
July 22 peak power declined 4.3% at £180.05/MWh, and August 22 peak power decreased 8.2% to £186.45/MWh.
The annual October 22 peak power rose 2.6% to £253.5/MWh.
This is 264.9% higher than the same time last year (69.48/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts experienced gains last week, up on average by 3.0%.
Winter 22 and summer 23 contracts expanded 5.1% and 2.8% respectively, rising to £247.50/MWh and £167.50/MWh.
Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted last week, up 2.7% on average.
Winter 22 and summer 23 peak power contracts increased 1.6% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £308.60/MWh and £198.40/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Carbon
Brent crude prices lifted 4.0% last week to average $119.26/bl.
The prospect of an EU-wide embargo on Russian oil continued to outweigh demand concerns last week.
The deal is thought to include carve-outs for member states most reliant on Russian oil, such as Hungary.
Similarly, the back-drop of a globally tightened brent crude market continues to provide a strong foundation of ongoing price support.
Elsewhere, reports that Chinese lockdown restrictions have begun to subside, eased future demand fears from what represents one of the largest oil consuming countries globally.
API 2 coal fell 2.0% to average $233.80/t.
Carbon markets saw bullish movements across both EU and UK ETS markets. The UK ETS gained 2.0% to average £82.72/t, while the EU ETS climbed 3.0% to average €84.54/t over the week.
Both the UK and EU ETS carbon markets remain sensitive to change, with uncertainty in the wider European energy landscape amid the Russian-Ukraine war causing a ripple effect into carbon markets.
From a bullish point of view last week, carbon prices mirrored most other global commodity markets which enjoyed a period of price growth. Similarly, we also observed a period of low auction supply, which lent support to prices across both the UK and ETS carbon markets.
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