3 September 2021

Headlines

All power and gas contracts increased this week, with many hitting record highs. Both day-ahead gas and power reached their highest levels on our records, dating back to 2008. Day-ahead gas jumped 14.2% to 133.0p/th and day-ahead power leapt 121.2% to £240.0/MWh. Prices were driven higher by forecasts of tight margins next week, amid increased gas-for-power demand due to low wind generation. Month-ahead and season ahead contracts also posted significant gains with gas storage levels remaining low across Europe and continued high LNG prices. Month-ahead gas rose 12.0% to 132.7p/th and winter 21 gas climbed 11.1% to 134.2p/th. Meanwhile, October 21 power gained 10.5% to £126.0/MWh and the winter 21 contract lifted 9.7% to £127.8/MWh. Brent crude oil lifted 3.3% to average $72.4/bl, following signs of global demand recovery and extended outages in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of Hurricane Ida. EU ETS rose 6.8% to average €60.3/t and UK ETS gained 6.0% to average £52.0/t, supported by rising gas prices and increased investor buying towards the end of the week.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power surged 12.1% to £240.0/MWh, with higher-gas-for power demand and low levels of wind generation forecast early next week.
  • October 21 power jumped 10.5% to £126.0/MWh and November 21 power rose 8.1% to £132.0/MWh.
  • Q421 power moved 10.7% higher to £129.5/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract rose 7.5% to £105.1/MWh, 118.6% higher than the same time last year (£48.1/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison

Annual October Contract

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power leapt 161.8% to £305.0/MWh, taking direction from its baseload counterpart.
  • October 21 peak power gained 8.3% to £131.3/MWh, and November 21 peak power lifted 6.1% to £151.5/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 peak power contract rose 4.3% to £114.1/MWh.
  • This is 110.6% higher than the same time last year (£54. 2/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • All seasonal power contracts saw gains this week, up on average by 5.2%.
  • Winter 21 power rose 9.7% to £127.8/MWh and summer 22 power gained 4.3% to £82.4/MWh.
  • Seasonal peak power contracts decreased by 0.9% on average, this week.
  • Winter 21 climbed 7.2% to £142.3/MWh, while summer 22 peak power was unchanged at £86.0/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Carbon

  • Brent crude oil lifted 3.3% to average $72.4/bl, this week.
  • Prices were supported by signs of global demand recovery and extended outages in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of Hurricane Ida.
  • API 2 coal climbed 8.1% to average $114.4/t.
  • EU ETS carbon rose 6.8% to average €60.3/t and UK ETS gained 6.0% to average £52.0/t, this week.
  • Prices took direction by rising gas prices across the continent in addition to increased investor buying towards the end of the week.
Wholesale price snapshot 

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