It was another mostly bullish week for gas and power contracts in GB this week, continuing trends observed across much of July. Day-ahead gas rose 13.3% to 102.00p/th, following periods of undersupply during the week and buoyed by prolonged maintenance works across the NCS reducing flows into GB from Norway. Day-ahead gas prices reached a three-year high on 29 July, at 103.75p/th. Day-ahead power lifted 5.2% to £101/MWh, taking direction from notable gains made in near-term gas markets and low wind output during the week. August 21 gas was up 14.9% at 102.20p/th, and September 21 gas increased 12.7% to 102.20p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted this week, up by 5.0% on average, with winter 21 and summer 22 gas increasing 8.1% and 7.4%, to 101.20p/th and 60.15p/th respectively. All seasonal power contracts traded higher this week, up on average by 3.9%. Winter 21 and summer 22 power went up 6.3% and 5.1% respectively, rising to £100.95/MWh and £66.20/MWh. Brent crude oil rebounded this week, rising from losses seen in the week prior. Subsequently, prices were 4.8% higher at $74.93/bl. This week was the first time in almost a month where carbon prices rose; following three consecutive weeks of decline the EU ETS reversed this trend, up 2.7% to €53.38/t. The UK ETS shared this bullish sentiment, also up marginally to £43.40/t.
Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 5.2% to £101/MWh, following gas prices higher on the near-curve, with further support coming from periods of low wind output.
August 21 power climbed 13.8% to £101.7/MWh and September 21 power increased 10.0% to £99.7/MWh.
Q421 power moved 8.9% higher to £104.3/MWh.
The annual October 21 contract rose 5.8% to £83.58/MWh, 85.3% higher than the same time last year (£45.1/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was down 8.3% to £94.50/MWh, despite reported gains in its baseload counterpart.
August 21 peak power gained 14.3% at £101.75/MWh, and September 21 peak power increased 4.9% to £102/MWh.
The annual October 21 peak power lost 1.0% to £84.35/MWh.
This is 66.8% lower than the same time last year (50.57/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 3.9%.
Winter 21 and summer 22 lifted 6.3% and 5.1% respectively, rising to £100.95/MWh and £66.20/MWh.
Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 4.9% on average.
Winter 21 gas dropped 2.2% to £102.70/MWh, while summer 22 peak power increased 6.5% to £66.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Carbon
Brent crude oil rebounded this week, rising from losses reported in the week prior. Subsequently, prices were 4.8% higher at $74.93/bl.
Prices at the week’s start were aided by expectations of a tighter supply output and rising vaccination rates helping to offset the impact of rising Covid-19 cases on future demand growth.
Similarly, reports of lowering US crude inventories continued to support a more bullish picture for Brent crude prices this week, helping to ease supply concerns in the market.
This week was the first time in almost a month where carbon prices rose; following three consecutive weeks of decline the EU ETS rebounded, up 2.7% to €53.38/t.
The UK ETS shared this bullish sentiment, also up marginally to £43.40/t.
Low auction supply volumes expected for August continued to bolster prices, with carbon prices also taking direction from price rises across the wider commodity markets.
Wholesale price snapshot
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