All power and gas contracts fell this week, largely weighed upon by lockdown announcements made across GB and Continental Europe which have acted to suppress demand. Day-ahead gas fell 11.6% to 38.00p/th, following a period of milder temperatures correlated with strong renewable generation throughout the week. Similarly, day-ahead power declined, falling 18.3% to £35.75/MWh, with high wind output weighing on prices coupled with lower demand. November 20 gas was down 5.3% at 42.05p/th, and December 20 gas decreased 8.9% to 42.66p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 5.7% on average – following the wider movements in commodity markets. Summer 21 and winter 21 gas dropped 8.4% and 5.3% respectively, subsiding to 33.77p/th and 42.02p/th respectively. All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 4.4%, as summer 21 power decreased 6.1% to £42.40/MWh, while winter 21 fell 4.7% to £48.65/MWh. Brent crude oil fell notably this week, seeing a decrease of 6.6% to average $39.57/bl. The Brent crude price suffered this week as a result of recent lockdown announcements as news of a global escalation in covid-19 case numbers emerged, adding to fears within the market of a likely drop-off in demand. EU ETS carbon dropped by a further 3.5% to average €23.60/t for the week.
Day-ahead power fell 18.3% to £35.75/MWh, following, following strong wind output throughout the week.
November 20 power slipped 7.3% to £47.5/MWh and December 20 power decreased 8.6% to £47.75/MWh.
Q121 power moved 5.6% lower to £50.5/MWh.
The annual April 21 contract lost 5.4% to £45.53/MWh, 5.5% lower than the same time last year (£48.2/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October Contract
Day-ahead peak power was down 6.8% to £48.00/MWh, amid mild temperatures and high renewables output.
November 20 peak power declined 3.0% to £56.53/MWh, and December 20 peak power decreased 5.0% to £55.47/MWh.
The annual April 21 peak power contract lost 2.7% to £51.34/MWh.
This is 6.2% lower than the same time last year (54.72/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 4.4%.
Summer 21 power decreased 6.1% to £42.40/MWh, while winter 21 fell 4.7% to £48.65/MWh.
All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 2.9% on average.
Summer 21 and winter 21 peak power dropped 3.5% and 2.1% respectively, falling to £46.90/MWh and £55.77/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude oil fell notably this week, seeing a decrease of 6.6% to average $39.57/bl. In weeks previous, the Brent crude price had remained relatively stable sitting above the $40.00/bl mark.
However, news of tighter restrictions rolled out across Europe and the UK combined with increasing case numbers as pre-empted the week prior, has weighed on prices heavily this week.
Increased lockdown measures continue to generate concern within the market from a likely drop-off in demand. Similarly, a ramp up in production from Libya late this week had added to a further bearish outlook on prices with concerns over oversupply.
API 2 coal similarly declined, falling 3.4% to average $57.45/t for the week.
EU ETS prices fell again this week. Prices dropped by a further 3.5% to average €23.60/t for the week.
The drop in prices this week was symptomatic of the general sentiment observed across many global commodity markets, as COVID-19 cases begin to climb at an increased pace.
An agreed verdict for the carbon market post-Brexit is still yet to be agreed, fuelling further fears within the market about the future of EU ETS trading.
The uncertainty surrounding a definitive framework for the market has dampened prices for several weeks, combined with already suppressed prices as a result of wavering demand from the Coronavirus.
Wholesale price snapshot
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