This week was saw a largely bearish sentiment across GB gas and power contracts. The most pronounced week-on-week losses were obserbed in near-term contracts, due to easing pressures on system fundamentals in the week. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 14.2% to 188.00p/th, following periods of stronger Norwegian imports and increased LNG cargo deliveries to the UK, softening the ongoing tight gas supply landscape. Day-ahead power fell too, down 7.2% to £168.00/MWh, mirroring the largely bearish direction of near-term gas contracts. This was exacerbated by periods of stronger wind generation in tandem. As a result, March 22 gas was down 12.0% at 196.24p/th, and April 22 gas decreased 9.7% to 194.78p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 2.8% on average. Both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 9.4% and 9.6% respectively, subsiding to 194.85p/th and 202.53p/th. On the contrary, most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 3.7%, as summer 22 power increased 6.7% to £183.75/MWh, and winter 23 lifted 5.9% to £125.00/MWh.
Day-ahead power fell 7.2% to £168.00/MWh, following near-term gas contracts lower, exacerbated by periods of stronger wind generation in tandem.
March 22 power slipped 13.5% to £182.50/MWh and April 22 power decreased 7.6% to £188.00/MWh.
Q222 power moved 6.1% lower to £185.00/MWh.
The annual April 22 contract lost 5.3% to £189.38/MWh, but was 265.0% higher than the same time last year (£51.88/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison
Annual April Contract
Day-ahead peak power slid 40.7% to £178.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower with forecasts or more comfortable supply margins.
March 22 peak power declined 17.0% at £195.00/MWh, and April 22 peak power decreased 15.8% to £185.00/MWh.
The annual April 22 peak power contract rose 16.1% to £209.00/MWh.
This was 258.3% higher than the same time last year (58.33/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 3.7%.
Summer 23 power increased 7.2% to £119.00/MWh, while summer 24 lifted 16.2% to £92.00/MWh.
All seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 22.1% on average.
Summer 22 and winter 22 peak power increased 21.9% and 11.5% respectively, lifting to £195.00/MWh and £223.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude prices climbed again this week, up 1.4% to average $90.06/bl, including a fresh seven-year high on 4 February at $92.57/bl.
Prices this week continued to find bullish price support through ongoing market tightness.
Geopolitical tension between the Ukraine and Russia continued, and the threat of supply disruption from Russia has exacerbated future supply concerns.
However, bullish momentum from the Ukrainian and Russian conflict was partially offset by OPEC+ confirming they are looking to stick to their planned output rises.
Carbon prices saw collective increase from the week prior. The UK ETS lifted, up 3.0% to £84.85/t, while the EU ETS gained 4.3% to average €91.68/t.
The UK ETS broke record highs since the scheme’s inception in May 2021 on multiple days, with the latest high sitting at £86.75/t, aided by elevated gas prices prompting gas to coal switching, partly driven by the on-going Russian gas supply concerns.
Wholesale price snapshot
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