It was a relatively mixed week again for gas and power pricing fundamentals this week, with the most pronounced upwards trends seen on near-term contracts, with seasonal contracts generally easing slightly. In support of this, day-ahead gas rose 9.1% to 180.00p/th, rebounding against losses observed from the week prior. Gas prices this week primarily benefitted from select periods of increased heating and gas-for-power demand. Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £171.00/MWh, drawing on gains seen in near-term gas contracts, along with periods of lower wind outturn. December 21 gas was up 7.0% at 192.68p/th, and January 22 gas increased 5.2% to 195.31p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 4.4% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 1.5% and 1.7% respectively, subsiding to 105.95p/th and 108.69p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%, as summer 22 power decreased 1.2% to £106.00/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.6% to £108.25/MWh.
Day-ahead power rose 30.5% to £171/MWh, following notable gains made in short-term gas contracts and select periods of low wind outturn.
December 21 power climbed 1.1% at £183.96/MWh and January 22 power decreased 0.5% to £208.85/MWh.
Q122 power moved 1.4% higher to £182.5/MWh.
The annual April 22 contract lost 1.4% to £107.13/MWh, 131.7% higher than the same time last year (£46.23/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison
Annual April Contract
Day-ahead peak power was up 18.2% to £188.00/MWh, following baseload power higher.
December 21 peak power declined 18.9% at £223/MWh, and January 22 peak power increased 13.1% to £274.66/MWh.
The annual April 22 peak power rose 6.6% to £125.2/MWh
This is 139.3% higher than the same time last year (52.31/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
Annual April contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
Seasonal baseload power curve
Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.6%.
Summer 22 power decreased 1.2% to £106.00/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.6% to £108.25/MWh.
The majority of seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 7.3% on average.
Summer 22 gas increased 2.2% to £117.50/MWh, while winter 22 peak power dropped 13.1% to £132.89/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal
Brent crude prices averaged $83.20/bl last week, down 2.1% on the previous week’s average of $84.99/bl.
Primarily, the outlook for Brent crude prices remains consistent with recent trends, buoyed by the continuation of tighter market fundamentals.
Prices continue to gain support from OPEC+ recent decision to hold firm on output levels for the remainder of 2021, despite wider market pressures to increase supply to ease the tight market conditions.
Last week however, surplus crude volumes in the US sent bearish signals to the market.
EU ETS prices saw gains last week, up 0.9% to average €59.61/t, while UK ETS prices dropped 4.8% to average £53.07/t.
UK ETS carbon prices remain volatile at the moment, with the relative immaturity of the market, seeing significant swings in price over the last fortnight.
Recovering wind and renewable generation of late has seen lowering demand for fossil fuel generation to meet higher demand levels, weighing on prices as a result.
Wholesale price snapshot
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