Energy Wholesale Market Review – 10 March 2023


Most power and gas contracts fell this week, with the recent bearish pricing trend continuing from the start of this year. Day-ahead gas fell 3.3% to 118.0p/th, as gas supply levels in the country increased, despite an extended cold period across GB increasing gas for power demand. Day-ahead power fell 26.5% to £100.0/MWh, with forecasted expectations of higher wind power generation acting to decrease prices. Similarly, April 23 gas was up 2.2% at 117.5p/th, and May 23 gas increased 2.5% to 118.7p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts boosted last week, up by 0.6% on average, with both summer 23 and winter 23 gas increasing 2.6% and 1.4% respectively, lifting to 120.0p/th and 143.0p/th. Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.8%, as summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 3.1% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £131.0/MWh and £159.0/MWh.

Baseload electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead power fell 26.5% to £100.0/MWh, following forecasts of increased wind power generation next week.
  • April 23 power slipped 1.8% at £124.7/MWh and May 23 power decreased 2.0% to £124.5/MWh.

Annual October contract

  • Q223 power moved 0.8% higher to £128.0/MWh.
  • The annual April 23 contract rose 3.7% to £145.0/MWh, 0.7% higher than the same time last year (£144.0/MWh).

Peak electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead peak power was down 15.4% to £123.30/MWh, following baseload power lower.
  • April 23 peak power declined 4.3% at £131.7/MWh, and May 23 peak power decreased 9.3% to £126.25/MWh.

Annual April contract

  • The annual April 23 peak power rose 0.2% to £164.0/MWh
  • This is 4.4% lower than the same time last year (171.6/MWh).

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

  • All seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 2.8%.
  • Summer 23 and winter 23 expanded 3.1% and 4.1% respectively, rising to £131.0/MWh and £159.0/MWh.

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 0.3% on average.
  • Summer 23 gas dropped 1.8% to £139.0/MWh, while winter 23 peak power increased 1.1% to £189.0/MWh

Commodity price movements

Oil and coal

  • Brent crude oil fell 0.03% on the previous week to average $83.69/bl.
  • Brent crude saw bearish movements during the past seven days, as potential future Chinese demand rises outweighs the increases in US crude inventory levels.
  • Price drops were limited by the supply deficit from Russia, however.
  • Prices will increase as a result of the drop in US shale production, allowing OPEC to return as the most influential force in global oil supply.

Carbon (UK and EU ETS)

  • Both EU and UK ETS schemes saw their average price this week fall, with a 0.5% decrease to EU ETS carbon (€96.71/t), and UK ETS carbon seeing a 1.7% decline (£81.91/t).
  • Following the approach of the 2023 contract settlement deadline of 30 April, confirmed by the European Council in order to raise funds for the RepowerEU plan, demand for EU allowance (EUA) certificates has grown

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday

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