Headlines
This week largely represented more bearish sentiment for wholesale gas and power contracts in GB, with some exceptions from peak power prices. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 1.0% to 57.00p/th, weighed by elevated temperatures in the first half of the week – although price losses were capped by reduced flows following extensive work at Norwegian gas fields and reduced temperatures in the latter half of the week. Day-ahead power dropped 2.3% to £63.50/MWh, following the downward movements from its equivalent gas contract, coupled with slightly elevated week-on-week wind generation. Similarly, July 23 gas was down 1.9% at 56.00p/th, and August 23 gas decreased 2.2% to 61.80p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 6.1% on average, with winter 23 and summer 24 gas dropping 6.2% and 6.5% to 106.00p/th and 103.75p/th, respectively. All seasonal power contracts dropped this week, down on average by 6.3%, as winter 23 power decreased 6.5% to £115.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 4.4% to £97.50/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 2.3% to £63.50/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower, a result of decreased demand levels.
- July 23 power slipped 2.8% to £71.95/MWh and August 23 power decreased 2.5% to £74.10/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q323 power moved 5.7% lower to £75.00/MWh.
- The annual October 23 contract lost 5.5% to £106.50/MWh, 35.5% lower than the same time last year (£165.18/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 4.2% to £72.00/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
- July 23 peak power declined 5.9% to £76.00/MWh, whereas August 23 peak power rose 0.6% to £79.75/MWh.
Annual April contract
- The annual October 23 peak power rose 4.8% to £133.50/MWh.
- This is 36.0% lower than the same time last year (£208.48/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.3%.
- Winter 23 power decreased 6.5% to £115.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 4.4% to £97.50/MWh.
Seasonal baseload power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 4.8% on average.
- Winter 23 and summer 24 peak power dropped 5.0% and 4.5% respectively, falling to £155.50/MWh and £110.50/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil registered a 3.8% loss week-on-week to average $73.99/bl.
- Demand data from China trended weaker-than-expected, acting to outweigh the US government passed bill to suspend the debt ceiling – helping to offset the impact of rising crude inventory levels on the country.
- The outlook for oil prices is heavily dependent on Chinese demand levels, and as they grow into the future – prices are expected to rise as global supply tightens.
- Further bullish pricing trends come from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, in which a possible supply cut may arise – pushing prices higher.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both ETS schemes registered losses week-on-week as the EU ETS fell 4.8% to average €80.76/t, and the UK ETS dropped 7.8% to £51.44/t.
- Prices dropped as plunging gas prices triggered renewed selling of carbon. The EU ETS recorded a price of €80.15/t on 2 June – the lowest in five months. The UK ETS experienced its lowest price since August 2021 on 31 May, at £50.30/t due to the low demand outlook.
- In the coming weeks, the European Commission is likely to publish the first set of acts related to the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) – with mixed sentiment towards how prices will be impacted.
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
