Energy Wholesale Market Review – 2 June 2023


This week largely represented more bearish sentiment for wholesale gas and power contracts in GB, with some exceptions from peak power prices. Subsequently, day-ahead gas fell 1.0% to 57.00p/th, weighed by elevated temperatures in the first half of the week – although price losses were capped by reduced flows following extensive work at Norwegian gas fields and reduced temperatures in the latter half of the week. Day-ahead power dropped 2.3% to £63.50/MWh, following the downward movements from its equivalent gas contract, coupled with slightly elevated week-on-week wind generation. Similarly, July 23 gas was down 1.9% at 56.00p/th, and August 23 gas decreased 2.2% to 61.80p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 6.1% on average, with winter 23 and summer 24 gas dropping 6.2% and 6.5% to 106.00p/th and 103.75p/th, respectively. All seasonal power contracts dropped this week, down on average by 6.3%, as winter 23 power decreased 6.5% to £115.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 4.4% to £97.50/MWh.

Baseload electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead power fell 2.3% to £63.50/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower, a result of decreased demand levels.
  • July 23 power slipped 2.8% to £71.95/MWh and August 23 power decreased 2.5% to £74.10/MWh.

Annual October contract

  • Q323 power moved 5.7% lower to £75.00/MWh.
  • The annual October 23 contract lost 5.5% to £106.50/MWh, 35.5% lower than the same time last year (£165.18/MWh).

Peak electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead peak power was up 4.2% to £72.00/MWh, opposing its baseload counterpart.
  • July 23 peak power declined 5.9% to £76.00/MWh, whereas August 23 peak power rose 0.6% to £79.75/MWh.

Annual April contract

  • The annual October 23 peak power rose 4.8% to £133.50/MWh.
  • This is 36.0% lower than the same time last year (£208.48/MWh).

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

  • All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 6.3%.
  • Winter 23 power decreased 6.5% to £115.50/MWh, while summer 24 fell 4.4% to £97.50/MWh.

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 4.8% on average.
  • Winter 23 and summer 24 peak power dropped 5.0% and 4.5% respectively, falling to £155.50/MWh and £110.50/MWh.

Commodity price movements

Oil and coal

  • Brent crude oil registered a 3.8% loss week-on-week to average $73.99/bl.
  • Demand data from China trended weaker-than-expected, acting to outweigh the US government passed bill to suspend the debt ceiling – helping to offset the impact of rising crude inventory levels on the country.
  • The outlook for oil prices is heavily dependent on Chinese demand levels, and as they grow into the future – prices are expected to rise as global supply tightens.
  • Further bullish pricing trends come from the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, in which a possible supply cut may arise – pushing prices higher.

Carbon (UK and EU ETS)

  • Both ETS schemes registered losses week-on-week as the EU ETS fell 4.8% to average €80.76/t, and the UK ETS dropped 7.8% to £51.44/t.
  • Prices dropped as plunging gas prices triggered renewed selling of carbon. The EU ETS recorded a price of €80.15/t on 2 June – the lowest in five months. The UK ETS experienced its lowest price since August 2021 on 31 May, at £50.30/t due to the low demand outlook.
  • In the coming weeks, the European Commission is likely to publish the first set of acts related to the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) – with mixed sentiment towards how prices will be impacted.

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday

Power to make change

We believe that people power can change the world. We are here to help you have a positive impact on the planet. Together we can make a difference.

Take the next step

Becoming Net Zero

Leading by example, we became carbon neutral in 2023 and are committed to achieving net zero business emissions by 2030.

Read our strategy

Employee Ownership

As an Employee Ownership Trust we embrace the three pillars of good communication, governance and leadership, putting our people first.

Learn more about us

We will be by your side

Staying at the forefront of industry, we embrace and drive change, delivering solutions at pace and scale to meet the modern challenges of energy and sustainability.

Meet our people