Energy Wholesale Market Review – 21 April 2023


This week, wholesale gas and power contracts experienced mostly bearish trends – resulting from increased daily temperatures, coupled with greater wind power generation, when compared to last week. Day-ahead gas fell 0.5% to 99.5p/th amid strong LNG supplies, and decreased demand levels. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 2.3% to £104.5/MWh, following the bearish price movements of its equivalent gas contract, combined with increased renewable outturn seen during the week. May 23 gas eased 1.8% to 98.4p/th, and June 23 gas curtailed 2.8% to 99.6p/th. The vast majority of seasonal gas contracts lowered last week, aside from summer 25 which saw a marginal 0.9% growth, down by 0.9% on average – with winter 23 and summer 24 gas slipping 1.4% and 1.3% respectively, to 145.00p/th and 136.5p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal power contracts reduced this week, down on average by 2.8%, as winter 23 power decreased 2.5% to £154.00/MWh, and summer 24 fell 2.4% to £123.00/MWh.

Baseload electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead power fell 2.3% to £104.5/MWh, as temperatures remained above-average, coupled with increased wind generation levels
  • Similarly, May 23 power fell 3.8% to £100.5/MWh with June 23 power following this trend and dropping 6.8% to £102.5/MWh.

Annual October contract

  • Q223 power moved 3.5% lower to £111.5/MWh
  • The annual October 23 contract lost 2.5% to £138.5/MWh, 14.2% lower than the same time last year (£161.4/MWh).

Peak electricity

Forward curve comparison

  • Day-ahead peak power was down 1.6 % to £105.00/MWh, following its baseload power counterpart lower.
  • May 23 peak power fell 6.5% at £104/MWh, with June 23 peak power also decreasing, down 7.4% to 115.0/MWh.

Annual April contract

  • The annual October 23 peak power dropped 1.8% to £167.13/MWh.
  • This is 15.1% lower than the same time last year (196.9/MWh).

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

  • All seasonal power contracts fell this week, down on average by 2.8%.
  • Winter 23 power decreased 2.5% to £154.00/MWh, and summer 24 power dropped 2.4% £123.00/MWh.

Seasonal baseload power curve

  • All seasonal peak power contracts fell this week, seeing a decrease of 1.7% on average.
  • Winter 23 and summer 24 peak power contracts declined this week, down 2.6% and 0.7% respectively, falling to £196.50/MWh and £137.75/MWh

Commodity price movements

Oil and coal

  • Breaking its three-week bullish trend, Brent crude experienced a bearish week, with a decrease of 3.0% being recorded, amid fears of further US Federal interest rate increases – compounded by a stronger US dollar
  • However, losses were partially mitigated due to positive economic growth from China and news that US oil stockpiles had fallen to their lowest levels since 1983

Carbon (UK and EU ETS)

  • The EU ETS scheme saw a downward price movement, dropping 2.3% on average to €93.42/t, despite new reforms of the scheme being green-lit –introducing a carbon border tax designed to change global trade and impact the bloc’s carbon market. Similarly, the UK ETS carbon price decreased 6.5% to £67.61/t – following on from increased wind generation when compared to levels seen last week
  • EU ETS prices will remain elevated as demand for EU Allowance (EUA) contracts continues to rise as the 30 April deadline for the 2023 contract settlement approaches

Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday

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