Headlines
This week saw a continued bearish pricing trend, with all tracked wholesale gas and power contracts in GB registering week-on-week price losses. Ongoing milder weather and increased wind power generation have kept near-term prices lower this week, while longer-dated contracts have taken price direction from wider movements in international commodity markets. Day-ahead gas fell 4.6% to 56.90p/th, following strong LNG arrivals to GB terminals, in tandem with increased Norwegian gas flows. Similarly, day-ahead power fell 6.5% to £57.50/MWh, finding support from greater wind generation projections reducing the requirement on more expensive forms of power generation. Following wider movements in international commodity markets, March 24 gas was down 8.1% at 55.60p/th, and April 24 gas also decreased 8.1% to 55.25p/th. All seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 5.0% on average. Summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropped 8.9% and 5.8% respectively, to 56.50p/th and 71.60p/th. All seasonal power contracts also reported losses this week, down on average by 4.5%, as summer 24 power traded 6.5% lower at £54.00/MWh, while winter 24 fell 5.3% to £67.50/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 6.5% to £57.50/MWh, following high wind outturn projections for the week ahead – however stronger losses were limited by greater demand forecasts
- March 24 power slipped 4.8% at £54.75/MWh and April 24 power decreased 5.7% to £53.50/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q224 power moved 7.5% lower to £52.75/MWh.
- The annual April 24 contract lost 5.8% to £60.75/MWh, 57.7% lower than the same time last year (£143.50/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 3.1% to £77.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
- March 24 peak power declined 10.0% at £57.30/MWh, and April 24 peak power decreased 8.5% to £56.72/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 24 peak power dropped 4.6% to £70.50/MWh.
- This is 52.5% lower than the same time last year (148.50/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 4.5%.
- Summer 24 power decreased 6.5% to £54.00/MWh, while winter 24 fell 5.3% to £67.50/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 4.7% on average.
- Summer 24 and winter 24 peak power dropped 5.2% and 4.1% respectively, falling to £59.00/MWh and £82.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Continuing with the movements experienced over the last week, Brent crude registered a 0.8% increase to average $82.70/bl – finding bullish support from further attacks on ships in the Red Sea heightening fears of supply disruption in the region in tandem with a weaker US dollar
- Likewise, further upward sentiment came from indications of stronger oil demand across China throughout 2024
- However, gains were limited in the near-term by concerns around slow global oil demand, in tandem with a rise in US crude inventories across the week ending 16 February
- Looking further ahead, Brent crude oil is set to potentially experience a bullish year ahead as forecasts project growth in oil demand, pushing the price of the commodity up as supply levels remain restricted following OPEC+ supply cuts anticipated to remain in place across the first quarter of 2024
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Similar to the week previous, both carbon markets registered losses across the reporting period, with EU ETS carbon falling 6.5% to average €53.27/t and UK ETS carbon dropping 5.8% to average £33.58/t
- EU ETS prices continue to find support from reductions across gas prices due to greater supply security and strong EU gas storage stocks. However, recent mild weather has acted to decrease power demand across the continent, leading to the bearish movements seen. As a result, EU ETS prices fell to the lowest seen since July 2021 on 23 February at €51.60/t.
- UK ETS carbon saw week-on-week losses driven by greater wind generation across the UK acting to decrease reliance on more expensive forms of power generation
- Likewise, as temperatures continue to increase as we exit what represents the typical heating period here in GB, we anticipate that carbon prices will continue to fall as demand further diminishes
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
