This week, we continued to broadly observe the downturn of wholesale gas and power prices, with the day-ahead contracts being the primary outliers to this trend. Recent milder weather has helped to lower demand, allowing prices to soften. Added to this, the present gas storage level on the continent remains strong, with net injections being seen last week following mild weather. However, day-ahead gas rose 1.0% to 102.00p/th following some periods of system undersupply observed. Similarly, day-ahead power grew 3.5% to £118.00/MWh as forecasted wind outturn levels decrease next week. April 23 gas was down 4.6% at 103.00p/th, and May 23 gas decreased 3.9% to 104.75p/th. Seasonal gas contracts were mixed this week, however, seeing a 1.1% drop on average. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.8%, as summer 23 power decreased 5.0% to £115.00/MWh, while winter 23 fell 1.0% to 145.00/MWh
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 3.5% to £118.00/MWh, as forecasts project lower temperatures and wind power generation next week.
- April 23 power dropped 3.5% to £109.00/MWh and May 23 power decreased 2.6% to £111.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q223 power moved 4.3% lower to £112.00/MWh
- The annual April 23 contract saw a decrease of 2.8% to £130.25/MWh, 3.5% lower than the same time last year (£135.00/MWh).
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 6.4% to £128.00/MWh, following baseload power higher
- April 23 peak power declined 6.3% at £118.00/MWh, and May 23 peak power decreased 4.8% to £120.00/MWh.
Annual April contract
- The annual April 23 peak power rose 1.9% to £153.9/MWh.
- This is 4.9% lower than the same time last year (161.75/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- Most seasonal power contracts dropped this week, down on average by 1.8%
- Summer 23 and winter 23 lowered 5.0% and 1.0% respectively, dropping to £115.00/MWh and £145.50/MWh
Seasonal baseload power curve
- Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 1.8% on average
- Summer 23 gas dropped 1.2% to £131.00/MWh, and similarly winter 23 peak power decreased 2.5% to £176.80/MWh
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Brent crude oil fell 3.6% on the previous week to average $74.21/bl
- Brent crude experienced another bearish week, seeing its price fall to its lowest level in 15-months on Monday, following demand concerns arising from US recession levels and global banking concerns.
- However, prices somewhat steadied into the week, following the UBS takeover of Credit Suisse which acted to mitigate worries surrounding global economic crisis, coupled with the US dollar sliding into a six-week low after the US Federal Reserve delivered a small interest rate increase.
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Both EU and UK ETS schemes saw their average price this week fall, with a 3.2% decrease to EU ETS carbon (€89.00/t), and UK ETS carbon seeing a 6.4% decline (£73.27/t)
- Under the bloc’s Emission Trading System, EU member states have currently used up 62% of the free carbon allowances in their 2023 quota.
- This is a much larger percentage when compared to the same period last year. EU countries have a deadline of April 30 to surrender allowances after being able to grant free allocations until February 28.