Headlines
Across the week ending 26 April, most tracked gas and power contracts registered losses, with the baseload June 24 contract experiencing the only gain last week. Day-ahead gas fell 3.6% to 74.25p/th, as prices were influenced by forecasts of above-average temperatures in the week ahead acting to reduce domestic heating demand. Moreover, rising wind outturn projections for 29 April act to limit gas-for-power requirements as wind will make up a greater proportion of the generation mix. Likewise, day-ahead power dropped 8.4% to £70.39/MWh, following the bearish price movements of its equivalent gas contract. Moreover, May 24 gas was down 5.3% at 72.90p/th, and June 24 gas also decreased 5.3% to 71.83p/th. All seasonal gas contracts lowered last week, down 8.3% on average. Similarly, all seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.1%, as summer 25 fell 3.1% to £71.20/MWh, and winter 25 dropped 2.0% to £80.85/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power fell 8.4% on 26 April to £70.39/MWh, following increased wind outturn forecasts and easing demand projections for 29 April weighing bearishly on the contract
- May 24 power slipped 4.3% at £62.20/MWh and June 24 power increased 2.1% to £67.65/MWh
Annual October contract
- Q324 power moved 4.1% lower to £66.20/MWh.
- The annual October 24 contract lost 3.6% to £75.50/MWh, 42.3% lower than the same time last year (£130.88/MWh)
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was down 9.6% to £66.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower
- May 24 peak power declined 6.4% at £66.00/MWh, and June 24 peak power decreased 5.7% to £67.65/MWh
Annual October contract
- The annual October 24 peak power fell 3.1% to £87.27/MWh
- This is 52.0% lower than the same time last year (182.00/MWh)
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined last week, down on average by 3.1%.
- Winter 24 power decreased 4.1% to £79.80/MWh, while summer 25 fell 3.1% to £71.20/MWh
Seasonal peak power curve
- All Seasonal peak power contracts declined last week, down 3.5% on average
- Winter 24 and summer 25 peak power dropped 3.2% and 3.8% respectively, falling to £93.00/MWh and £75.50/MWh
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Across the reporting period, we saw the continuation of the bearish movements registered in the last report, falling 1.0% to $87.81/bl amid indications of easing tensions in the Middle East between Israel and Iran
- Likewise, we saw the release of economic data from the United States, which was weaker than anticipated, adding to the growing market sentiment of reduced fuel demand across the country
- However, stronger losses were limited by data showing stronger-than-expected growth in the Eurozone, potentially increasing oil demand, and an unexpected fall in U.S. crude stocks acting to tighten market supply
- As the pricing environment remains sensitive to geopolitical affairs, prices are set to remain volatile. If tensions surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict worsen, then Brent Crude will likely register gains as a result
- Moreover, increased demand from Europe and China may act to tighten the market while OPEC+ supply cuts continue into 2024
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- Last week we saw opposing movements registered across EU and UK ETS carbon prices, with losses seen across EU ETS prices falling 5.2% to €67.12/t, and gains across UK ETS prices, rising 1.2% to £36.57/t
- The gains across UK ETS carbon were supported by periods of upwards adjustments across its gas counterpart, in tandem with reduced wind generation across the reporting period acting to tighten system margins and increase thermal generation requirements
- Losses across EU ETS carbon were driven by forecasts of warmer weather across Europe in the week beginning 29 April, however stronger losses were limited by reports that the EU may propose a ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG, which led to increases across gas prices
- Power demand is set to decrease across the coming months, as temperatures rise and decreased pressure for heating is applied. As a result, more expensive forms of power generation will not be relied on as heavily, leading to decreased ETS prices as demand drops
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
