Headlines
Most wholesale gas and power contracts experienced losses this week, opposing the trend seen in the week previous. Day-ahead gas fell 0.4% to 69.00p/th, as increased Norwegian flows provided a bearish pricing environment. Opposing its gas counterpart however, day-ahead power rose 25.2% to £67.00/MWh, with lower wind generation projections in the week ahead acting to increase reliance on gas-fired power generation. Returning to the bearish sentiment, both March 24 and April 24 gas contracts fell to 67.10p/th, dropping 5.1% and 5.9%, respectively. Similarly, all seasonal gas contracts dropped this week, down by 6.8% on average, with summer 24 and winter 24 gas dropping 6.2% and 8.3% respectively, falling to 68.00p/th and 81.40p/th. Like gas, all seasonal power contracts registered losses this week, down on average by 7.6%, as summer 24 power decreased 7.1% to £61.75/MWh, and winter 24 fell 8.5% to £76.00/MWh.
Baseload electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead power rose 25.2% to £67.00/MWh, resulting from notably reduced wind generation projections for Monday bolstering reliance on more expensive forms of power generation.
- March 24 power slipped 4.9% to £63.25/MWh and April 24 power decreased 6.1% to £62.00/MWh.
Annual October contract
- Q224 power moved 8.0% lower to £60.70/MWh.
- The annual April 24 contract lost 7.9% to £68.88/MWh, 54.8% lower than the same time last year (£152.50/MWh).
Peak electricity
Forward curve comparison
- Day-ahead peak power was up 31.2% to £95.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
- However, March 24 peak power declined 3.0% to £70.15/MWh, and April 24 peak power decreased 3.2% to £66.05/MWh.
Annual October contract
- The annual April 24 peak power contract fell 5.5% to £78.98/MWh.
- This is 49.8% lower than the same time last year (£157.25/MWh).
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts
- All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 7.6%.
- Summer 24 power decreased 7.1% to £61.75/MWh, while winter 24 fell 8.5% to £76.00/MWh.
Seasonal peak power curve
- All seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 5.4% on average.
- Summer 24 and winter 24 peak power dropped 5.2% and 5.7% respectively, falling to £66.20/MWh and £91.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and coal
- Opposing the bullish sentiment recorded in the week previous, Brent crude prices fell 3.1% across the week commencing 5 February to average $79.12/bl, amid reports showing faster than expected wages and jobs growth in the U.S, which would likely push back any upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest cuts to later in the year, and hopes of a successful ceasefire negotiation between Israel and Hamas at the beginning of the week
- However, bullish factors arose following the rejection of a ceasefire agreement in the Israel-Hamas conflict provoking concerns around prolonged tensions in the region, paired with projections of lower oil production from the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico for 2024, in addition to continued OPEC+ supply cuts
- Crude prices will continue to oscillate into the future as they are reliant on sensitive geopolitical issues including the war in the Middle East, Chinese demand, and US inflation and production – all of which are changing on a day-by-day basis
Carbon (UK and EU ETS)
- EU ETS carbon prices saw a decrease in the average price recorded last week, falling 1.7% to average €62.08/t, contrary to UK ETS carbon prices which saw a 5.4% increase from their average price last week to average £35.91/t
- EU ETS prices continue to find support from reduced industrial power demand across the continent, in tandem with lower gas prices proving further bearish sentiment. As a result, EU ETS prices fell to the lowest seen since November 2021 on 9 February at €59.71/t
- UK ETS carbon rose as a result of decreased wind power generation across the country leading to increased reliance on fossil-fueled forms of power generation to make up for the loss
- Carbon prices are expected to fall as the months warm up further into the year. Increases to European LNG regasification capacity and mild weather have decreased the reliance on coal burning into 2024
Wholesale price snapshot – Friday-on Friday
