Energy Wholesale Market Review, 1 November 2019

Headlines

All power and gas contracts decreased this week. Day-ahead power gas fell 6.1% to finish the week at 28.3p/th. Day-ahead power dropped 11.3% to finish the week at £39.3/MWh following gas prices lower, as temperatures unexpectedly rose above seasonal normal levels this week, though are expected to drop again next week. December 2019 gas lost 3.5% to 42.6p/th and January 20 gas dropped 2.5% to 45.3p/th. Seasonal gas contracts fell 2.3% on average with summer 20 gas dropping 2.9% to 39.6p/th. December 19 power fell 1.2% to £49.1/MWh while January 20 power reduced 1.0% to £52.2/MWh. Seasonal power prices slipped 0.8% on average. Summer 20 power fell 1.1% to £45.6MWh, winter 20 contract lost 0.6% to £45.1/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to average $61.0/bl, as US stocks saw a boost this week following a surprise hit the week before. US-China trade talks have made progress whilst factory production in Japan sunk to a three-year low, OPEC have made decision to make deeper cuts as OPEC+ countries agree to them. EU ETS carbon increased 0.7% to average €25.5/t as the announcement of general election could shift carbon price focus for the time being. API 2 coal prices dropped 2.7% to average $65.2/t.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power dropped 11.3% to finish the week at £39.3/MWh.
  • December 19 power fell 1.2% to £49.1/MWh while January 20 power reduced 1.0% to £52.2/MWh.
  • Q120 power slipped 1.0% to £51.5/MWh.
  • The annual April 20 power contract slipped 0.9% to £49.3/MWh. This is 6.8% lower than the same time last year (£52.9/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 1 November 2019

Annual October Contract

Baseload electricity Annual April contract 1 November 2019

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power dropped 10.2% to £44.0/MWh, £4.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
  • December 19 peak power fell 1.3% to £55.4/MWh.
  • January 20 peak power decreased 0.3% to £59.4/MWh.
  • Annual April 20 peak power was 1.0% lower at £54.9/MWh, £5.6/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
  • The contract is 7.5% below its value this time last year (£59.4/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 1 November 2019

Annual October contract

Peak electricity Annual April contract 1 November 2019

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 1 November 2019

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 1 November 2019

  • All seasonal power contracts declined this week, going down 0.7% on average.
  • Summer 20 power fell 1.1% to £45.6/MWh, winter 20 contract also lost 0.6% to £53.0/MWh.
  • Seasonal peak power contracts were 0.8% lower on average.
  • Summer 20 peak power fell 1.3% to £49.4/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and Coal 1 November 2019

 

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 1 November 2019

  • Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to average $61.0/bl.
  • US stocks surged this week following an unexpected hit the week before.
  • US-China trade talks have made progress whilst factory production in Japan sunk to a three-year low, OPEC have made decision to make deeper cuts as OPEC+ countries agree to them.
  • API 2 coal prices dropped 2.7% to average $65.2/t.
  • South Korea announced this week that six older coal-fired power stations were to close by 2021.
  • EU ETS carbon increased 0.7% to average €25.5/t.
  • Announcement of general election could shift carbon price focus for the time being.
  • News this week of emissions from the European carbon market falling by 4% in 2018, with the decrease mainly driven by the power sector. Emissions from the industry sector fell only slightly.
Wholesale price snaphot

Wholesale price snapshot 1 November 2019

Posted by TEAM on 4 November 2019
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