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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 1 November 2019

Headlines

All power and gas contracts decreased this week. Day-ahead power gas fell 6.1% to finish the week at 28.3p/th. Day-ahead power dropped 11.3% to finish the week at £39.3/MWh following gas prices lower, as temperatures unexpectedly rose above seasonal normal levels this week, though are expected to drop again next week. December 2019 gas lost 3.5% to 42.6p/th and January 20 gas dropped 2.5% to 45.3p/th. Seasonal gas contracts fell 2.3% on average with summer 20 gas dropping 2.9% to 39.6p/th. December 19 power fell 1.2% to £49.1/MWh while January 20 power reduced 1.0% to £52.2/MWh. Seasonal power prices slipped 0.8% on average. Summer 20 power fell 1.1% to £45.6MWh, winter 20 contract lost 0.6% to £45.1/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to average $61.0/bl, as US stocks saw a boost this week following a surprise hit the week before. US-China trade talks have made progress whilst factory production in Japan sunk to a three-year low, OPEC have made decision to make deeper cuts as OPEC+ countries agree to them. EU ETS carbon increased 0.7% to average €25.5/t as the announcement of general election could shift carbon price focus for the time being. API 2 coal prices dropped 2.7% to average $65.2/t.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power dropped 11.3% to finish the week at £39.3/MWh. December 19 power fell 1.2% to £49.1/MWh while January 20 power reduced 1.0% to £52.2/MWh.		Q120 power slipped 1.0% to £51.5/MWh. The annual April 20 power contract slipped 0.9% to £49.3/MWh. This is 6.8% lower than the same time last year (£52.9/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power dropped 10.2% to £44.0/MWh, £4.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart. December 19 peak power fell 1.3% to £55.4/MWh. January 20 peak power decreased 0.3% to £59.4/MWh.		Annual April 20 peak power was 1.0% lower at £54.9/MWh, £5.6/MWh above its baseload power counterpart. The contract is 7.5% below its value this time last year (£59.4/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
All seasonal power contracts declined this week, going down 0.7% on average. Summer 20 power fell 1.1% to £45.6/MWh, winter 20 contract also lost 0.6% to £53.0/MWh.		Seasonal peak power contracts were 0.8% lower on average. Summer 20 peak power fell 1.3% to £49.4/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to average $61.0/bl. US stocks surged this week following an unexpected hit the week before. US-China trade talks have made progress whilst factory production in Japan sunk to a three-year low, OPEC have made decision to make deeper cuts as OPEC+ countries agree to them. API 2 coal prices dropped 2.7% to average $65.2/t. South Korea announced this week that six older coal-fired power stations were to close by 2021.		EU ETS carbon increased 0.7% to average €25.5/t. Announcement of general election could shift carbon price focus for the time being. News this week of emissions from the European carbon market falling by 4% in 2018, with the decrease mainly driven by the power sector. Emissions from the industry sector fell only slightly.
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