Energy Wholesale Market Review, 1 November 2019

• Day-ahead power dropped 11.3% to finish the week at £39.3/MWh.
• December 19 power fell 1.2% to £49.1/MWh while January 20 power reduced 1.0% to £52.2/MWh.

• Q120 power slipped 1.0% to £51.5/MWh.
• The annual April 20 power contract slipped 0.9% to £49.3/MWh. This is 6.8% lower than the same time last year (£52.9/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power dropped 10.2% to £44.0/MWh, £4.7/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• December 19 peak power fell 1.3% to £55.4/MWh.
• January 20 peak power decreased 0.3% to £59.4/MWh.

• Annual April 20 peak power was 1.0% lower at £54.9/MWh, £5.6/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract is 7.5% below its value this time last year (£59.4/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal power contracts declined this week, going down 0.7% on average.
• Summer 20 power fell 1.1% to £45.6/MWh, winter 20 contract also lost 0.6% to £53.0/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts were 0.8% lower on average.
• Summer 20 peak power fell 1.3% to £49.4/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil rose 1.3% to average $61.0/bl.
• US stocks surged this week following an unexpected hit the week before.
• US-China trade talks have made progress whilst factory production in Japan sunk to a three-year low, OPEC have made decision to make deeper cuts as OPEC+ countries agree to them.
• API 2 coal prices dropped 2.7% to average $65.2/t.
• South Korea announced this week that six older coal-fired power stations were to close by 2021.

• EU ETS carbon increased 0.7% to average €25.5/t.
• Announcement of general election could shift carbon price focus for the time being.
• News this week of emissions from the European carbon market falling by 4% in 2018, with the decrease mainly driven by the power sector. Emissions from the industry sector fell only slightly.

Wholesale price snaphot