Energy Wholesale Market Review, 1 October 2021

• Day-ahead power rose 55.8% to £215/MWh, following gas contracts higher on the near-curve and benefitting from lowering wind outturn as the week progressed.
• November 21 power climbed 25.6% at £250/MWh and December 21 power increased 22.9% to £245/MWh.

• Q122 power moved 37.5% higher to £240/MWh.
• The annual April 22 contract rose 21.5% to £121.5/MWh, 160.4% higher than the same time last year (£46.66/MWh).

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 55.6% to £235.00/MWh, following its baseload counterpart higher.
• November 21 peak power gained 34.3% at £325/MWh, and December 21 peak power increased 27.0% to £291.45/MWh.

• The annual April 22 peak power price rose 28.4% to £132.5/MWh
• This is 147.6% higher than the same time last year (53.52/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 16.2%.
• Summer 22 and winter 22 expanded 22.4% and 20.6% respectively, rising to £120.00/MWh and £123.00/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts lifted this week, up 14.5% on average.
• Summer 22 and winter 22 peak power increased 23.2% and 33.5% respectively, rising to £125.00/MWh and £140.00/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude prices rose again this week, up 4.5% to $79.93/bl, maintaining a strong price point by comparison to a year prior. Prices are now over 90% higher than the same time a year ago.
• The supply market generally remains tight for Brent crude oil, fueling higher prices.
• This on-going tightness is also driven by 2-year lows in Singapore fuel stocks and the evacuation of Mongstad oil refinery in Norway after reports of a gas leak.

• It was a bullish week for carbon markets. The UK ETS market experienced significant price rises, up 28.4% on the week prior to average £73.22/t, also reaching a record high since the scheme’s inception back on 19 May, at £75.50/t on 29 September. The EU ETS experienced similar upward trends, rising 3.5% to €62.16/t.
• Colder temperatures have increased the demand for fossil fuel generation, as well as on-going higher auction demand.

Wholesale price snapshot