Energy Wholesale Market Review, 11 June 2021

Headlines

Most power and gas contracts rose this week. Day-ahead gas rose 11.0% to 69.40p/th, following periods of system undersupply, combined with lowering temperatures as the week matured, with these expected to reduce further into next week. Day-ahead power rose 2.7% to £76.00/MWh, following gas prices higher on the near curve and benefitting from lowering wind output towards the end of the week. July 21 gas was up 11.7% at 69.45p/th, and August 21 gas increased 12.0% to 69.40p/th. All seasonal gas contracts increased this week, up by 7.2% on average. Winter 21 and summer 22 gas rose 10.3% and 7.8% respectively, lifting to 77.50p/th and 49.60p/th. Most seasonal power contracts moved higher this week, up on average by 2.8%. Winter 21 and summer 22 power lifted 6.2% and 3.5% to £85.50/MWh and £59.50/MWh, respectively. Brent crude oil gained 1.5% to average $71.97/bl, this week. Prices reached a fresh two-year high of $72.65/bl on 11 June. EU ETS carbon prices rose 2.3% to average €52.54/t. Conversely, UK ETS carbon fell 2.1% to average £46.56/t.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 2.7% to £76.00/MWh, following gas prices higher on the near curve, as well as benfitting from reduced wind generation as the week matured.
  • July 21 power climbed 4.2% to £76.50/MWh and August 21 power increased 6.3% to £77.10/MWh.
  • Q321 power moved 5.6% higher to £77.6/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract rose 5.1% to £72.5/MWh, 66.5% higher than the same time last year (£43.55/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 11 June 2021

 

Annual April Contract

Baseload electricity Annual October contract 11 June 2021

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was down 5.4% to £73.75/MWh, countering trends from its baseload counterpart.
  • July 21 peak power gained 4.0% to £82.60/MWh, and August 21 peak power increased 4.8% to £82.56/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 peak power lost 0.7% to £78.38/MWh.
  • This is 59.0% lower than the same time last year (£49.31/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 11 June 2021

Annual April contract

Peak electricity Annual October contract 11 June 2021

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 11 June 2021

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 11 June 2021

  • Most seasonal power contracts increased this week, up on average by 2.8%.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 power gained 6.2% and 3.5% respectively, rising to £85.50/MWh and £59.50/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts rose this week, up 0.5% on average.
  • Winter 21 and summer 22 peak power climbed 1.1% and 0.1% to £93.00/MWh and £63.75/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and coal 11 June 2021

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon 11 June 2021

  • Brent crude oil gained 1.5% to average $71.97/bl, this week. Prices reached a fresh two-year high of $72.65/bl on 11 June.
  • The predominant driving force for higher Brent crude prices this week came from production shortfall in Libya. Reports emerged of pipeline leaks in the region which squeezed supply, particularly towards the end of the week.
  • Any further sustained price rises were capped by higher than expected US crude stockpiles, supporting a weaker demand recovery picture and a backdrop of coronavirus uncertainty in India.
  • EU ETS carbon prices rose 2.3% to average €52.54/t. Conversely, UK ETS carbon fell 2.1% to average £46.56/t.
  • European carbon markets experienced mixed movements in the week, generally improving as the week matured, however.
  • Upward price movements on average were stimulated by tighter European gas markets and reduced renewable power generation on the continent in parallel.
Wholesale price snapshot 

Wholesale price snapshot 11 June 2021

Posted by TEAM on 14 June 2021
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