Energy Wholesale Market Review, 11 October 2019

• Day-ahead power lost 4.0% to £41.0/MWh, following its gas counterpart lower.
• Month-ahead power slipped 0.9% to £49.1/MWh, while December 19 power lifted 0.1% to £52.4/MWh.

• Q120 power gained 0.6% to £54.8/MWh.
• The annual April 20 power contract climbed 1.9% to end the week at £51.2/MWh. This is down 5.9% lower than the same time last year (£54.5/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power lifted 4.6% to £49.0/MWh, £8.0/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• November 19 peak power lost 0.9% to £56.2/MWh.
• December 19 peak power edged 0.2% higher to £58.7/MWh.

• Annual April 20 peak power was 1.9% higher at £57.0/MWh, £5.8/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract is 4.0% below its value this time last month (£59.4/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal baseload power contracts rose, increasing 2.5% on average.
• Summer 20 power gained 2.0% to £47.7/MWh, while winter 20 climbed 1.8% to £54.8/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts were 1.9% higher on average.
• Summer 20 peak power lifted 1.6% to £51.6/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil slipped 0.7% to average $58.7/bl.
• Prices were pressured by ongoing concerns of slowing global demand growth.
• In addition, a larger than expected rise in US crude stocks provided further downward momentum.
• However, prices received some support on Friday following reports of a missile attack on an Iranian oil tanker off the coast of Saudi Arabia.
• API 2 coal prices gained 2.9% to average $67.6/t.
• Low coal stocks in India and decreasing coal production in the country provided support to coal prices..

• EU ETS carbon fell 5.2% to average €23.0/t.
• Ongoing certainty surrounding Brexit and US-China trade talks pushed prices lower.
• Additionally, forecasts of strong renewable generation on the continent in the coming weeks and full EUA auction volumes are expected to continue to pressure carbon prices.

Wholesale price snaphot