Energy Wholesale Market Review, 11 October 2021

• Day-ahead power fell 0.9% to £213/MWh, following but remains well above seasonal normal prices, driven by lower renewable output and higher gas prices.
• November 21 power climbed 2.0% at £255/MWh and December 21 power increased 2.0% to £250/MWh.

• Q122 power moved 8.3% higher to £260/MWh.
• The annual April 22 contract lost 11.3% to £107.75/MWh, 124.9% higher than the same time last year (£47.9/MWh).

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power remained the same at £235.00/MWh, holding on to its elevated price point.
• November 21 peak power declined 6.2% at £305/MWh, and December 21 peak power increased 2.6% to £299/MWh.

• The annual April 22 peak power rose 2.6% to £136/MWh
• This is 151.6% higher than the same time last year (54.05/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.1%.
• Summer 22 power decreased 12.1% to £105.50/MWh, while winter 22 fell 10.6% to £110.00/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts boosted this week, up 1.1% on average.
• Summer 22 power dropped 12.1% to £105.50/MWh, while winter 22 peak power increased 9.3% to £153.00/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude prices rose again this week, up 2.9% to $81.21/bl. Prices also reached a three-year high on 8 October, at $83.19/bl.
• The global picture of Brent crude remains tight. Higher demand profiles across many global markets with less supply has provided a strong undercurrent of support to price over the last fortnight.
• For this week in particular, the market also responded to news that OPEC+ would not be looking to increase supply volumes to the market in response to combat market tightness.

• The strong bullish sentiment for carbon markets softened this week.
• Subsequently, the UK ETS fell 9.8% lower to £66.08/t with the EU ETS falling 0.2% to €62.02/t.
• Wider bullishness from Brent crude markets did lend some support to carbon markets in part, but was offset by what continues to be a particularly volatile period for wholesale markets, discouraging thermal generation and investor buying in a costly marketplace

Wholesale price snapshot