Energy Wholesale Market Review, 12 November 2021

Headlines

This week represented yet another particularly volatile week for wholesale market prices, with significant daily swings in price, and varying movements further along the forward curve. Day-ahead gas fell 1.7% to 177.00p/th, following increased Russian gas flows into via Mallnow and Velke Kapusany, albeit significant volumes have yet to fully impression on the European gas market. Day-ahead power rose 46.2% to £250/MWh, with bullish price movements seen on Friday 12 November, in anticipatin of low wind outturn at the front end of next week, Monday in particular. December 21 gas was up 0.7% at 194.00p/th, and January 22 gas increased 1.4% to 198.06p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined last week, down by 2.4% on average, while both summer 22 and winter 22 gas dropped 3.7% and 3.9% respectively, subsiding to 101.98p/th and 104.50p/th. Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.8%, as summer 22 power decreased 2.4% to £103.50/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.2% to £107.00/MWh.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power rose 46.2% to £250/MWh, following strong upward Friday price movements, supported by notable downturn in wind expected for the front end of next week.
  • December 21 power climbed 3.3% at £190/MWh and January 22 power increased 0.3% to £209.47/MWh.
  • Q122 power moved 4.1% higher to £190/MWh.
  • The annual April 22 contract lost 1.8% to £105.25/MWh, 124.7% higher than the same time last year (£46.84/MWh).
Forward Curve Comparison

 

Annual April Contract

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was up 78.7% to £336.00/MWh, following baseload higher.
  • December 21 peak power gained 0.9% at £225/MWh, and January 22 peak power decreased 0.6% to £273/MWh.
  • The annual April 22 peak power rose 1.0% to £124/MWh
  • This is 136.4% higher than the same time last year (52.45/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

 

Annual April contract

 

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

 

Seasonal baseload power curve

 

  • Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 0.8%.
  • Summer 22 power decreased 2.4% to £103.50/MWh, while winter 22 fell 1.2% to £107.00/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down 5.1% on average.
  • Summer 22 peak power dropped 2.1% to £115.00/MWh, while winter 22 peak power increased 0.1% to £133.00/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

 

Carbon

  • Brent crude prices fell 1.8% from the previous week to average $81.71/bl. Price still remain ~90% higher than the same time a year prior, however.
  • Weekly drivers were relatively subdued for much of the week, akin to stagnated daily prices for much of last week. Some bearish factors at play however did include strengthening US dollar and rising US crude stock volumes in parts of the week.
  • OPEC for now appear to have held firm on original output schedule, which will continue to provide a sturdy base-level of support for prices.
  • EU ETS prices saw gains last week, up 3.1% to average €61.43/t. The UK ETS reversed recent bearish trends, and subsequently rose 3.5% higher to £54.92/t.
  • UK ETS carbon prices remain volatile at the moment, with the relative immaturity of the market, seeing significant swings in price over the last fortnight. The sustained period of strong UK and European gas prices lend support to prices.
Wholesale price snapshot 

 

Posted by TEAM on 12 November 2021
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