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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 13 December 2019

Headlines

Most power and gas contracts fell this week, with the day-ahead and a few seasonal contracts as the exceptions. Day-ahead gas rose 6.2% to 32.50p/th, following colder temperatures on average this week. Day-ahead power rose 13.8% to £42.10/MWh, with lower wind generation forecast for the start of next week. January 20 gas was down 7.5% at 36.39p/th, and February 20 gas decreased 6.9% to 37.17p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 2.8% on average. Summer 20 and winter 20 gas dropped 5.6% and 3.8% respectively, subsiding to 33.12p/th and 44.19p/th. Most seasonal power contracts also declined this week, down on average by 1.2%, as summer 20 power decreased 2.4% to £41.42/MWh, while winter 20 fell 1.6% to £49.70/MWh. Brent crude oil rose 3.3% to $64.27/bl as oil prices reacted positively to a tweet by US President Donald Trump this week that the US was getting “very close to a big deal with China”. EU ETS carbon reversed last week’s losses gaining 1.6% to €24.92/t as the Conservative party won a working majority in the UK general election this week. API 2 coal lost 3.8% to $59.72/t as prices dipped below $60.00/t for the first time since July 2016.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 13.8% to £42.10/MWh, following colder temperatures on average this week. January 20 power slipped 5.3% to £44.75/MWh and February 20 power decreased 4.2% to £45.49/MWh.		Q120 power moved 4.0% lower to £44.59/MWh. The Annual April 20 contract lost 2.0% to £45.56/MWh, 19.1% lower than the same time last year (£56.35/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power was down 10.1% to £47.00/MWh, £4.90/MWh above its baseload counterpart. January 20 peak power declined 1.9% to £53.01/MWh, and February 20 peak power decreased 4.3% to £51.49/MWh.		The Annual April 20 peak power lost 1.7% to 50.93/MWh. This is 19.8% lower than the same time last year (63.48/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
Most seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 1.2%. Summer 20 power decreased 2.4% to £41.42/MWh, while winter 20 fell 1.6% to £49.70/MWh.		Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down £1.5% on average. Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power dropped 1.9% and 1.5% respectively, falling to £45.31/MWh and £56.56/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil gained 3.3% to $64.27/bl. Oil prices reacted positively to a tweet by US President Donald Trump this week that the US was getting “very close to a big deal with China”. The President signed off on a deal to delay what would have seen increased tariffs on China coming into effect on 15 December. API 2 coal lost a further 3.8% to $59.72/t as prices dipped below $60.00/t for the first time since July 2016.		EU ETS carbon reversed last week’s losses gaining 1.6% to €24.92/t as the Conservative party won a working majority in the UK general election this week. Stability was provided to EU ETS prices this week as previous uncertainty over the outcome of the UK election was supported by relatively low auction volumes.
Wholesale price snapshot