Energy Wholesale Market Review, 13 November 2020

• Day-ahead power dropped 17.0% to £37.00/MWh amid consistently strong wind generation throughout the week.
• December 20 power edged 0.1% higher to £47.5/MWh and January 21 power slipped 0.3% to £52.88/MWh.

• Q121 power lifted 0.6% to £49.90/MWh.
• The annual April 21 contract rose 1.5% to £46.71/MWh, 0.8% lower than the same time last year (£47.08/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power lost 2.0% to £48.50/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
• December 20 peak power declined 2.7% to £52.80/MWh, and January 21 peak power decreased 1.8% to £57.45/MWh.

• The annual April 21 peak power contract lost 0.5% to £51.85/MWh.
• This is 3.1% lower than the same time last year (£53.52/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Seasonal power contracts rose by 1.1%, on average.
• Summer 21 power climbed 1.2% to £43.66/MWh and the winter 21 contract gained 1.7% to £49.76/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts slipped by 0.1%, on average.
• Summer 21 peak power fell 0.8% to £47.51/MWh and the winter 21 contract dropped 0.2% to £56.18/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil jumped 8.5% to average $43.16/bl, this week, reaching a two-month high of $45.21/bl on 11 November.
• Oil prices jumped on the news that the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer and BioNTech showed a 90% effectiveness rate, rising above $45.0/bl. Comments from Algeria’s energy minister suggesting that OPEC+ could extend or further deepen current production cuts also provided support to oil prices.
• However, towards the end of the week some of these gains were reversed, as global infections continued to rise, and tighter restrictions re-imposed in numerous countries.
• API 2 coal gained 2.8% to average $55.75/t, hitting a four-week high of $59.80/t on Friday.

• EU ETS carbon climbed 7.4% to average €26.23/t, last week.
• Like the other commodity markets, carbon prices rose to a milestone high, reaching a one-month high of €26.74/t on Wednesday 11 November.
• Carbon prices found support from the news of a successful COVID-19 vaccine and signs of power demand recovery, with E.ON’s Q3 quarterly results showing demand in its EU markets had risen to the same level as Q319.

Wholesale price snapshot