Energy Wholesale Market Review, 14 February 2020

• Day-ahead power fell 1.3% to a record-low of £26.15/MWh due to mild temperatures and high wind generation.
• March 20 power slipped 2.8% at £31.86/MWh and April 20 power decreased 3.4% to £32.13/MWh.

• Q220 power moved 2.2% lower to £33.15/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract rose 0.6% to £38.72/MWh, 25.1% lower than the same time last year (£51.73/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was down 2.8% to £34.70/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
• March 20 peak power gained 9.2% to £35.81/MWh, and April 20 peak power increased 14.0% to £43.78/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power lost 14.0% to 43.78/MWh.
• This is 24.9% lower than the same time last year (58.27/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts rose this week, up on average by 1.1%.
• Summer 20 power was an exception and fell1.4% to £33.52/MWh, while winter 20 rose 2.1% to £43.92/MWh.

• Most seasonal peak power contracts declined this week, down £12.6% on average.
• Summer 20 and winter 20 peak power dropped 12.4% and 13.2% respectively, falling to £33.81/MWh and £43.00/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil fell 0.7% to average $54.99/bl as oil prices fluctuated this week on a mixture of bearish and bullish news. Brent crude oil prices ultimately ended the week higher than last week, the first week-on-week increase in over a month.
• Initially falling at the start of the week, prices began to steady on optimism that muted demand due to the coronavirus outbreak could be easing. This was despite OPEC revising its 2020 oil consumption growth forecast 200,000bpd lower. Prices rose towards the end of the week with deeper supply cuts from OPEC looking increasingly likely.
• API 2 coal saw small losses this week, falling by 1.3% to average $59.64/t.

• EU ETS carbon increased 1.1% to average €23.59/t this week as momentum from the previous week carried through. High auction volume and a general bullish global market meant that EU ETS prices peaked at €24.32/t on 14 February, the highest prices seen so far in the month.
• EU ETS prices continue to follow a currently uncertain global market, and could raise above €25/t in coming weeks if markets show resurgence.

Wholesale price snapshot