Energy Wholesale Market Review, 15 November 2019

• Day-ahead power rose 19.4% to £53.0/MWh, following low wind generation near the end of the week.
• December 19 power was down 4.0% at £46.9/MWh, and January 20 power decreased 3.2% to £49.8/MWh.

• Q120 power moved 3.0% lower to £49.3/MWh.
• The Annual April 20 contract lost 2.2% to £48.0/MWh, 12.4% lower than the same time this year (£54.8/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power rose 32.4% to £64.8/MWh, reflecting the rise in baseload power.
• December 19 peak power was down 3.4% at £52.9/MWh, and January 20 peak power decreased 3.2% to £56.8/MWh.

• The Annual April 20 peak power lost 2.0% to 53.4/MWh.
• This is 13.6% lower than the same time this year (61.8/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All Seasonal power contracts declined this week, down to 1.5%.
• Summer 20 and Winter 20 power dropped 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, falling to £44.3/MWh and £51.7/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts declined by £1.5% on average.
• Summer 20 and Winter 20 peak power dropped 2.0% and 2.1% respectively, falling to £48.1/MWh and £58.8/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil inched down 0.2% to average $62.2/bl this week.
• Prices currently 8.5% lower than at the same time this year.
• Mixed forecasts on US stocks this week by the EIA and OPEC acted as opposite drivers on prices.
• Announced this week were plans to freeze spending on the US shale industry, which will likely see slow-down in growth of US oil output.
• API 2 coal prices slipped a further 1.4% to $63.21/t, down 28.0% on the same time this year.

• EU ETS carbon fell by 2.8% to €24.5/t.
• Minimal price changes reflected a lack of notable activity in the market this week.
• Report this week by the IEA said that CO2 emissions would continue to rise even if government policies and plans were met.
• Emissions would be required to fall by nearly 70% if global warming was to be limited to 1.65°C.

Wholesale price snaphot