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Energy Wholesale Market Review, 15 November 2019

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Most power and gas contracts decreased again this week, with the day-ahead power contract the exception. Day-ahead gas fell 3.5% to finish the week at 38.6p/th with high LNG send-out offsetting a drop in temperatures mid-week. Day-ahead power gained 19.4% to finish at £53.0/MWh as wind generation fluctuated heavily throughout the week. December 19 gas was down 5.0% at 40.6p/th, and January 20 gas decreased 3.4% to 43.5p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week down by 0.8% on average. Summer 20 and Winter 20 gas dropped 1.4% and 1.5% respectively, falling to 38.7p/th and 48.7p/th. All Seasonal power contracts dropped this week, down 1.5% on average. Summer 20 and Winter 20 power dropped 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, falling to £44.3/MWh and £51.7/MWh. Brent crude oil inched down 0.2% to average $62.2/bl this week, amid mixed forecasts of US oil inventories. Announced this week were plans to freeze spending on the US shale industry, which will likely see a reduction in US oil output growth. EU ETS carbon fell by 2.8% to €24./t as minimal price changes reflected a lack of notable activity in the market this week. API 2 coal prices slipped a further 1.4% to $63.21/t.

Baseload electricity
Day-ahead power rose 19.4% to £53.0/MWh, following low wind generation near the end of the week. December 19 power was down 4.0% at £46.9/MWh, and January 20 power decreased 3.2% to £49.8/MWh.		Q120 power moved 3.0% lower to £49.3/MWh. The Annual April 20 contract lost 2.2% to £48.0/MWh, 12.4% lower than the same time this year (£54.8/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October Contract
Peak electricity
Day-ahead peak power rose 32.4% to £64.8/MWh, reflecting the rise in baseload power. December 19 peak power was down 3.4% at £52.9/MWh, and January 20 peak power decreased 3.2% to £56.8/MWh.		The Annual April 20 peak power lost 2.0% to 53.4/MWh. This is 13.6% lower than the same time this year (61.8/MWh).
Forward curve comparison		Annual October contract
Seasonal power prices
Seasonal baseload power contracts		Seasonal baseload power curve
All Seasonal power contracts declined this week, down to 1.5%. Summer 20 and Winter 20 power dropped 2.3% and 2.0% respectively, falling to £44.3/MWh and £51.7/MWh.		Seasonal peak power contracts declined by £1.5% on average. Summer 20 and Winter 20 peak power dropped 2.0% and 2.1% respectively, falling to £48.1/MWh and £58.8/MWh.
Commodity price movements
Oil and Coal		Carbon
Brent crude oil inched down 0.2% to average $62.2/bl this week. Prices currently 8.5% lower than at the same time this year. Mixed forecasts on US stocks this week by the EIA and OPEC acted as opposite drivers on prices. Announced this week were plans to freeze spending on the US shale industry, which will likely see slow-down in growth of US oil output. API 2 coal prices slipped a further 1.4% to $63.21/t, down 28.0% on the same time this year.		EU ETS carbon fell by 2.8% to €24.5/t. Minimal price changes reflected a lack of notable activity in the market this week. Report this week by the IEA said that CO2 emissions would continue to rise even if government policies and plans were met. Emissions would be required to fall by nearly 70% if global warming was to be limited to 1.65°C.
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