Energy Wholesale Market Review, 16 July 2021

Headlines

It was a predominately bearish week for gas and power contracts this week, slipping from record highs across most markets. As a result, day-ahead gas fell 3.5% to 87.30p/th, weighed by periods of system oversupply and generally wavering demand throughout the week . Similarly, day-ahead power dropped 4.9% to £92.25/MWh, falling from record highs the week prior, primarily driven by periods of increased wind output and taking direction from losses in gas markets on the near-curve. August 21 gas was down 2.2% at 86.83p/th, and September 21 gas decreased 2.4% to 87.96p/th. Most seasonal gas contracts declined this week, down by 1.9% on average, while both winter 21 and summer 22 gas dropped 2.9% and 3.6% respectively, subsiding to 92.25p/th and 55.79p/th. Elsewhere, all seasonal power contracts experienced losses like their gas counterparts, down on average by 3.1%, as winter 21 power decreased 3.8% to £94.77/MWh, while summer 22 fell 3.1% to £62.75/MWh. It was a largely bearish week across tracked international commodity markets also. Brent crude oil dipped 0.8% to average $74.87/bl this week. It was a second consecutive week of downward price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS lost 4.2% to €52.82/t, with the UK ETS falling 4.4% to £43.63/t.

Baseload electricity
  • Day-ahead power declined 4.9% to £92.25/MWh, falling from record highs the week prior, primarily driven by periods of increased wind output and taking direction from losses in gas markets on the near-curve.
  • August 21 power slipped 1.3% at £88.75/MWh and September 21 power decreased 2.3% to £89.85/MWh.
  • Q421 power moved 3.0% lower to £95.75/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 contract lost 3.5% to £78.76/MWh, 65.3% higher than the same time last year (£47.64/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Baseload electricity Forward curve comparison 16 July 2021

Annual April Contract

Baseload electricity Annual October contract 16 July 2021

Peak electricity
  • Day-ahead peak power was down 5.4% to £98.70/MWh, following its baseload counterpart lower.
  • August 21 peak power declined 0.1% at £88.8/MWh, and September 21 peak power decreased 1.4% to £93.65/MWh.
  • The annual October 21 peak power lost 3.6% to £86.53/MWh.
  • This is 63.4% lower than the same time last year (52.96/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Peak electricity Forward curve comparison 16 July 2021

Annual April contract

Peak electricity Annual October contract 16 July 2021

Seasonal power prices

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power contracts 16 July 2021

Seasonal baseload power curve

Seasonal power prices Seasonal baseload power curve 16 July 2021

  • All seasonal power contracts declined this week, down on average by 3.1%.
  • Winter 21 power decreased 3.8% to £94.77/MWh, while summer 22 fell 3.1% to £62.75/MWh.
  • Most seasonal peak power contracts grew this week, up 2.0% on average.
  • Winter 21 gas dropped 1.1% to £103.85/MWh, while summer 22 peak power increased 11.6% to £69.20/MWh.
Commodity price movements

Oil and Coal

Commodity price movements Oil and coal 16 July 2021

Carbon

Commodity price movements Carbon (UK and EU ETS) 16 July 2021

  • Brent crude oil fell 0.8% to average $74.87/bl this week.
  • A combination of bearish factors contributed to the downward price movement in the Brent crude oil price across this week.
  • Initially, prices suffered amid reports demand growth has been slowing in recent weeks, perhaps driven by concerns over emerging COVID-19 variants.
  • Similarly, expectations of increased supply following Saudi Arabia and the UAE reaching a compromise deal on Wednesday, which would add further supply into an already relatively supply dominated market.
  • It was a second consecutive week of bearish price movements across both UK and European carbon markets. The EU ETS lost 4.2% to €52.82/t, with the UK ETS falling 4.4% to £43.63/t. Whilst prices across both the UK and EU ETS fell, prices are still high by comparison to prices earlier this year.
  • Prices this week took direction from wider commodity markets. Lowering gas prices, weaker Brent crude prices and cooler than expected temperatures, all of which provided downward pressure on carbon prices. However, delays in issuing free EUA allocation by Germany and Poland curbed any sustained price losses.
Wholesale price snapshot 

Wholesale price snapshot 16 July 2021

Posted by TEAM on 16 July 2021
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