Energy Wholesale Market Review, 18 October 2019

• Day-ahead power gained 2.9% to £42.2/MWh, following forecasts of low wind generation on Monday.
• Month-ahead power lifted 0.2% to £49.2/MWh, while December 19 power lost 1.3% to £51.7/MWh.

• Q120 power slipped 1.2% to £54.1/MWh.
• The annual April 20 power contract declined 1.0% to end the week at £50.7/MWh. This is 5.0% lower than the same time last year (£53.4/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power fell 5.1% to £46.5/MWh, £4.3/MWh above its baseload counterpart.
• November 19 peak power rose 0.8% to £56.6/MWh.
• December 19 peak power decreased 1.1% to £58.2/MWh.

• Annual April 20 peak power was 1.0% lower at £56.4/MWh, £5.7/MWh above its baseload power counterpart.
• The contract is 3.3% below its value this time last year (£58.3/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• All seasonal baseload power contracts decreased, falling 1.3% on average.
• Summer 20 power slipped 0.8% to £47.3/MWh, while winter 20 decreased 1.1% to £54.2/MWh.

• Seasonal peak power contracts were 1.0% lower on average.
• Summer 20 peak power fell 1.0% to £51.1/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to average $59.1/bl.
• Prices were pushed higher by news of shutdowns at the UK’s Buzzard oilfield and the Forties pipeline.
• However, gains were limited by concerns of slower economic growth in China and news that US crude inventories rose more than expected the previous week.
• API 2 coal prices gained 1.4% to average $68.6/t.
• Strikes at French nuclear, hydro and gas-fired power stations resulted in a loss of 4.7GW of generation capacity, providing opportunity for coal-fired generators to fill the gap.

• EU ETS carbon jumped 8.6% to average €25.0/t.
• Prices were supported by the agreement of a Brexit deal between the EU and the UK.
• However, some uncertainty remains with the deal still requiring approval by both the UK and EU parliaments.

Wholesale price snaphot