Energy Wholesale Market Review, 18 September 2020

• Day-ahead power rose 9.3% to £52.75/MWh, as periods of significantly lower wind generation this week created a bullish sentiment as temperatures once again decline.
• October 20 power climbed 1.7% to £42.90/MWh and November 20 power increased 2.7% to £53/MWh.

• Q420 power moved 1.5% higher to £49.22/MWh.
• The annual October 20 contract rose 1.9% to £47.63/MWh, but was still 8.0% lower than the same time last year (£51.79/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October Contract

• Day-ahead peak power was up 13.7% to £59.25/MWh, similar to its baseload counterpart, as day-light hours continue to draw in and bullish sentiment swept spot power prices this week.
• October 20 peak power gained 1.8% to £49.69/MWh, and November 20 peak power increased 4.0% to £63.28/MWh.

• The annual October 20 peak power contract lost 2.3% to £54.37/MWh.
• This is 7.1% lower than the same time last year (58.5/MWh).

Forward curve comparison

Annual October contract

Seasonal baseload power contracts

Seasonal baseload power curve

• Most seasonal power contracts boosted this week, up on average by 1.0%.
• Winter 20 and summer 21 expanded 1.2% and 2.7% respectively, rising to £51.00/MWh and £44.25/MWh.

• Most Seasonal peak power contracts also rose this week, up 1.8% on average.
• Winter 20 and summer 21 peak power increased 2.7% and 1.7% respectively, up to £60.13/MWh and £48.61/MWh.

Oil and Coal

Carbon

• Brent crude oil prices rose marginally this week, seeing a 1.1% increase to average $41.27/bl— but dipping under $40/bl at the beginning of the week.
• The brent crude oil price gained support as OPEC encouraged its members to stick to their production quotas with some reports of a supply deficit.
• Demand concerns also continue to resonate through the market, with prices consequently struggling to gain momentum.

• Following a decline last week, EU ETS prices rose 7.2% to average €29.23/t this week.
• The market experienced mixed movements but remained above €28.00 for the entirety of the week.
• The sustained positive sentiment in the market was surrounded by proposals of more ambitious 2030 climate targets for the EU.

Wholesale price snapshot