This week, all commodity prices fell for a second week, with EU ETS carbon hitting a two-month low and Brent crude oil dropping below $80.0/bl. Despite pressure from falling commodity prices, near-term wholesale power and gas prices reversed the previous week’s decline and rose. All baseload and peak power contracts to summer 19 rose this week, as reduced wind output and lower temperatures tightened supply and demand fundamentals. In contrast, seasonal power contracts past winter 19 fell, following commodity markets down. The majority of gas contracts rose week-on-week, with summer 21 the exception. Day-ahead gas increased 5.0% to end the week at 68.0p/th, as temperatures are forecast to remain below seasonal normal levels. This was despite many LNG deliveries to the UK as high prices have incentivised cargoes to come to Europe. The weekly average Brent crude oil price fell for a second week, dropping 3.3% to average $80.4/bl, down from $83.1/bl last week. Prices fell below $80.0/bl on 15 October as Saudi Arabia announced it would increase production in November, despite geopolitical tensions between it and the US creating some volatility. API 2 coal also fell for the second week, down 0.2% to average $96.5/t. Although prices dropped to $95.3/t on 17 October, coal prices recovered to end the week up at $99.3/t. EU ETS carbon prices fell 7.3% to average €19.1/t, remaining below €20.0/t throughout the week. Prices dropped to a two-month low of €17.9/t on 16 October amid uncertainty over the effects of a no-deal Brexit on the EU ETS.
Baseload electricity | ||
|
| |
Forward curve comparison
| Annual October Contract | |
Peak electricity | ||
|
| |
Forward curve comparison | Annual October Contract | |
Seasonal power prices | ||
Seasonal baseload power contracts | Seasonal baseload power curve
| |
|
| |
Commodity price movements | ||
Oil and Coal | Carbon | |
|
| |
Wholesale price snapshot
|